> China with directly or indirectly nationalise Evergrande. Most bondholders (especially foreigners) will be wiped out. Most of the unfinished buildings will be

> China with directly or indirectly nationalise Evergrande. Most bondholders (especially foreigners) will be wiped out. Most of the unfinished buildings will be completed in 2-5 years. I'm willing to take that bet! My prediction, a bit different, not that much. 1) nationalized. Yes 2) foreigners will be wiped out. Yes. 3) Huge backlash and more foreign money will leave China 4) China will backtrack a bit to appease ( a bit, but not enough) 5) Most buildings won't be completed. China doesn't have the funds anymore to build property like x years ago. The elite already took out their money. Civilians lost their "investment" and won't buy real estate like they did in the past. 6) Property declines further. Others like Evergrande will fall. 7) property becomes "cheap" ( relatively) 8) population declines 9) property becomes even cheaper ... Etc The thing I consider differently and shapes my narrative, is that it seems that China made a huge construction bet on population growth. And it seems that bet was wrong. So they don't want to finish those buildings, since it would drive prices down quicker. --- A lot of buildings were already abandoned and were never going to be build. There's an elite group that can borrow money in China and they don't need much collateral for it. So they construct 25%, cash in and are gone. Perhaps this practice isn't common for Evergrande though. But those buildings were abandoned because no one was willing to put in the 75% required to complete it ( which is a similar story, not the same though) Source of this practice: a friend had to setup one of his client's division in China for a couple of weeks a couple of years ago.