3 ms·

Elon's fixation on Mars or bust is kind of irrational and monomaniacal. I'm more of a Moon fan really, but I wouldn't bet against him reaching Mars in the next

by narag 3y ago

Elon's fixation on Mars or bust is kind of irrational and monomaniacal. I'm more of a Moon fan really, but I wouldn't bet against him reaching Mars in the next twenty years or so. The man is persistent.

Zigurd 3y ago
I would readily bet against that. It is unclear if humans can be delivered to Mars in good enough condition to do meaningful exploration where a human presence would make a difference. Shorter-term, it is unclear if Starship is the right rocket for any purpose due to being spec'ed for such a wide range of purposes, and incompletely spec'ed due to faith in an iterative development process that may be totally inappropriate for developing large complex systems. It is conceivable that a Moon station could be built and manned for a relatively small multiple of the cost of the ISS. It is conceivable such a station could be evacuated in the event of a serious failure. It is conceivable that humanity will learn interesting things about the Moon and perhaps do astronomy that would be otherwise impractical. Landing humans on Mars and not killing them would be the highest accomplishment of sending humans to Mars. Some things will have to wait for post-humans to be created, if that ever turns out to be a good idea.
- narag 3y ago
  All these objections are very reasonable, providing you accept some premises. One of them is the scale of current ships stays the same. But that isn't some fact of nature, it's just a political/economical circumstance that could change very fast, given the proper incentives.
- adrianN 3y ago
  Why do you think humans can’t be delivered to Mars? I’m not aware of any deal breakers.
  - Zigurd 3y ago
    You can get carried on a stretcher after a year on ISS. You're on your own when you get to Mars. The trip back won't be easier. It might be survivable. But is it ethical?
    - borissk 3y ago
      If people are willing to risk their lives in the name of human progress, why wouldn't it be ethical?
    - adrianN 3y ago
      The trip to Mars doesn't take a year, even unmanned probes that take low energy trajectories make it in around 200 days. And Mars has less than half the gravity of Earth, so you wouldn't be as crippled as here.

by narag 3y ago

Zigurd 3y ago

I would readily bet against that. It is unclear if humans can be delivered to Mars in good enough condition to do meaningful exploration where a human presence would make a difference. Shorter-term, it is unclear if Starship is the right rocket for any purpose due to being spec'ed for such a wide range of purposes, and incompletely spec'ed due to faith in an iterative development process that may be totally inappropriate for developing large complex systems. It is conceivable that a Moon station could be built and manned for a relatively small multiple of the cost of the ISS. It is conceivable such a station could be evacuated in the event of a serious failure. It is conceivable that humanity will learn interesting things about the Moon and perhaps do astronomy that would be otherwise impractical. Landing humans on Mars and not killing them would be the highest accomplishment of sending humans to Mars. Some things will have to wait for post-humans to be created, if that ever turns out to be a good idea.

narag 3y ago
All these objections are very reasonable, providing you accept some premises. One of them is the scale of current ships stays the same. But that isn't some fact of nature, it's just a political/economical circumstance that could change very fast, given the proper incentives.
adrianN 3y ago
Why do you think humans can’t be delivered to Mars? I’m not aware of any deal breakers.
- Zigurd 3y ago
  You can get carried on a stretcher after a year on ISS. You're on your own when you get to Mars. The trip back won't be easier. It might be survivable. But is it ethical?
  - borissk 3y ago
    If people are willing to risk their lives in the name of human progress, why wouldn't it be ethical?
  - adrianN 3y ago
    The trip to Mars doesn't take a year, even unmanned probes that take low energy trajectories make it in around 200 days. And Mars has less than half the gravity of Earth, so you wouldn't be as crippled as here.