I'm going to talk about political gambling but I'm not going to talk about PredictIt. PredicitIt is irrelevant to the conversation. It's high fees an miniscul

I'm going to talk about political gambling but I'm not going to talk about PredictIt. PredicitIt is irrelevant to the conversation. It's high fees an miniscule limits completely distorts what is "rational" or "reasonable" to expect the market to do. Betfair on the other hand is a reasonable thing to talk about. 2% fee on net winnings on a market and zero deposit or withdrawl fees makes it a pretty efficeint market for political betting. The Betfair political markets are dumb as a bag of rocks and there simply isn't enough smart money to suck up the dumb money. Political markets are incredibly thin, the average India Premier League cricket match gets way, way more action than all but the very largest political markets. The 2020 Presidential election was fairly unique in that the majority of the money was wagered after the election happened and after it was clear Biden had even. Idiot Trump supporters buying into conspiracy theories flooded the market with money. Political betting is very easy _but_ compared to sports gambling there is no where near enough events to make a living doing it. It's all very well having a huge edge (and betting on a even that has already completed is the largest edge you could ever have) but if you only get 1 betting opportunity a year that's not a way to make a living. It is a great way to have some fun though. Even in 2016, two days after the election, Clinton was @1.05 to win the popular vote. Right now on Betfair, despite almost £6 million having been traded on the market Michelle Obama is the 2nd favourite for the Democratic nomination @9.2 (that's a better than 10% chance). (For comparison about market size currently the Comilla Victorians vs Rangpur Riders match has over 4.5 million wagered).