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Unfortunately I think this will have less of an impact than many people think. As expensive as the radiation hardened hardware is, it's still series produced st
by renhanxue 3y ago
Unfortunately I think this will have less of an impact than many people think. As expensive as the radiation hardened hardware is, it's still series produced stuff that doesn't need reinventing for every mission. Almost all of the costs are in development of the unique scientific instruments each mission needs, and in keeping the mission teams staffed.
For example NASA's Lucy mission that launched in 2021 had a just under $1 billion budget, in which $560m was spacecraft development and $280m was for keeping a mission team staffed for 12 years. The launch on an Atlas V was $150m. What's $250k for a radiation hardened CPU in that? It's not even peanut crumbs. And as expensive as the launch was, even if SpaceX and other new launch companies drive it down by 90%, the budget for this mission would still be about a billion dollars.
Heck, even if you started series production of probes and their instruments and as such were able to amortize the development costs over a bunch of spacecraft, the fact remains that if you wanna go somewhere interesting it's gonna take years and you're gonna have to have a staff of mission specialists on retainer for most of that time. You can't disrupt away the fact that space is really big, at least not until someone discovers some new physics.
- dtaht 3y agoI have long advocated that we attempt dozens of "Deep Impact" style missions against the NEOs - short mission lifetime, perhaps months from launch to impact + a high launch rate - would bring the cycle time from innovation to exploration way, way down. The "Pluto Express" abuse of the word "express" rankled. Not having to fund a team for decades per single mission would be a savings also. If we shift our foci to closer targets, outside LEO, by delta-v and flight time, we will evolve our spaceflight technologies much faster. The moon is a lousy target, because landing on it, and returning from it is so hard, and Mars is too far.