> The implied probability of Trump beating Clinton a few days before was around 20%. Unclear if you think this is incorrect? Obviously it happened, but most r

> The implied probability of Trump beating Clinton a few days before was around 20%. Unclear if you think this is incorrect? Obviously it happened, but most reasonable prediction methodologies put it between 20 and 30%. Notably 538 and Superforecasters (via The Good Judgement Project at the time) both had it in that range (as did prediction markets). There were some outliers - in particular some newspaper(?) had a statistical methodology that gave Clinton a 95%+ chance. In a two horse race that is obviously wrong! I was working in the forecasting field at the time, and that seemed about right. It was an unlikely but not impossible outcome.