If anything then that means that they work! Situations with a 25% chance do occur sometimes! If prediction markets show 75% odds and are right 3/4 times, they a

If anything then that means that they work! Situations with a 25% chance do occur sometimes! If prediction markets show 75% odds and are right 3/4 times, they are doing their job well - if they show 75% odds and right 4/4 times, they are doing their job badly! Meanwhile, both polls and analysts got those elections completely wrong, much more so than prediction markets. (IIRC, 538 was the only outlet that gave Trump a >20% chance to win, and they got a lot of bad words for their prediction pre-election.) Unfortunately, people keep falling for this. You can always cherrypick elections from 7 years ago as "evidence" against prediction markets, but if you look at the bigger picture, you will see that they get a vast majority of elections right. But when they don't, even just once in a decade, they get all the blame. There's plenty of research on this: https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf