> We know that this tidal wave of money is dumb money because we can see intense tribal behavior on these sites and research tells us that the more one identifi

> We know that this tidal wave of money is dumb money because we can see intense tribal behavior on these sites and research tells us that the more one identifies with a “team,” the worse one’s predictions for that team are. People will bet for candidates and parties not because they have an evidence-based analysis supporting their bet, but as an expression of identity. This first sentence is completely unsupported. How do you know that the volume of comments tells you the amount of money bet? Actually, sports betting does have a fan bias. I doubt many 49'er fans are going to bet on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. It could well be that prediction markets give the wrong answer, but I'll still give them as much weight as FiveThirtyEight. Or more. FiveThirtyEight is hardly non-ideological, cold-eyed realism. It's also true that smart money is not feasting on the dumb money, as a market really needs. The low volume and high costs of betting do make prediction markets less than perfect.