> The implied probability of Brexit a few days before was around 25%. It was one of the 25 days out of 100 not one of the 75 days out of 100. > these dislocat

> The implied probability of Brexit a few days before was around 25%. It was one of the 25 days out of 100 not one of the 75 days out of 100. > these dislocations The market puts the chance of flipping a coin and getting heads at 50%, when it comes up tails it doesn't mean that the market was irrationally pricing heads.