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> average predicted likelihood is frequently illogical What is being pointed out is that is not illogical when you fully understand it. I will let you bet me
by mike_d 3y ago
> average predicted likelihood is frequently illogical
What is being pointed out is that is not illogical when you fully understand it.
I will let you bet me that Taylor Swift is not the current president of the United States. For every $1 you bet, I will return $1.05 to you*. You can bet as much as you like and as often as you want - my email address is in my profile.
* 10% transaction fee applies
- chadash 3y agoI’ll offer the same bet but no transaction fee. But it pays out on Jan 1, 2028
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoThat's a really good loan rate.
- nick222226 3y agoEspecially for unsecured debt!
- baq 3y agoUS government offers the same bet, except it settles April/May 2024, and is tax-advantaged.