The number of people who have told me "because betting markets have Trump at X% in 2024, that's the odds that he wins" in the past six months is staggering. I t

The number of people who have told me "because betting markets have Trump at X% in 2024, that's the odds that he wins" in the past six months is staggering. I think some distribution of the idea that betting markets aren't actually pure likelihood estimators is a good thing.