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I find this interesting but I'm not sure I understand and I'd like to. Are you suggesting that there is a psychological aversion to prediction markets when the

by sctb 3y ago

I find this interesting but I'm not sure I understand and I'd like to. Are you suggesting that there is a psychological aversion to prediction markets when the outcomes in question are as personal as politics? Would a similar analogy be, say, reluctance to the idea of finding one's romantic partner through a formalized process like algorithmic matchmaking?

alphazard 3y ago
What I have observed is: people calling these markets or their participants stupid. Then when they are told they can make money off of these supposedly stupid market participants, another made up reason is given why they won't put their money where their mouth is. If the algorithms for finding romantic partners are similar to netflix recommendations, then I think the aversion to them is totally warranted; I don't think that's the same thing. If a closed source algorithm makes bad recommendations, I can dismiss it as useless. If I don't like the price of a prediction market, I am forced to reconcile what I know about the structure of the market, with my personal beliefs. Anytime these markets come up in conversation or are used in a thought experiment, it reveals how few of an individual's outwardly professed beliefs they themselves take seriously. It's almost like most of the time someone says they believe something they are actually trying to manipulate anyone listening, rather than solicit criticism to refine the belief.