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The earth has had some of the fastest warming ever in the last 15 thousand. During this time crop yields have increased dramatically. The trend is unmistakable,

The earth has had some of the fastest warming ever in the last 15 thousand. During this time crop yields have increased dramatically. The trend is unmistakable, the warmer the planet, the more food we produce.

singingfish 3y ago
100% of people who mistake correlation for causation end up dead.
- textbookrental 3y ago
  All the climate modelling is based on correlation, so I thought that's what we were doing. Is there another approach we should be taking?
  - wredue 3y ago
    Dude no. We know that the gasses we are releasing cause warming and we know the ratio of those gases naturally occurring vs human pollution.
    - t0bia_s 3y ago
      How do you know?
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - wredue 3y ago
        We know because it’s measurable. You. Literally YOU. Can trivially measure the impact of different gases on temperature. Telling the difference between natural and human produced is probably not doable by you personally, however, human burned pollution tends to have different atomic markers from naturally occurring. We have mandatory pollution reporting. We can do basic maths to find reasonably close numbers to how much of the pollution is natural and how much is from us. With regard to “the prediction models are always wrong” fake news propaganda bullshit: They are always wrong in a way that’s worse for us by underestimating the bad impacts. Every time we improve the models, the outcomes are worse even faster than the models predict, and we have to find why.
        t0bia_s 3y ago
        Yet you don't know nothing, you believe in catastrophic scenarios. We can measure anecdotaly that temperature is slightly rising. The reason why is it happening and happend in history multiple times is topic for debate that we can explore. However your tone is not open for debate and use exactly same words as those you fight against.
        wredue 3y ago
        It is not “up for debate” that various gasses cause a rise in temperature. You are pretending that our scientific knowledge is at 1600 levels to come to your insane conclusions. You claim that I’m not open for debate, but it’s actually just that there is no debate here. You’re a just printing demonstrable lies on to the internet, for what?
        defrost 3y ago
        Cutting to the guts of the question: > How do you know? posed in ignorance (perhaps genuine ignorance, perhaps feigned) above, we (humans) have been measuring gas properties in isolation for 200 years (and more) and have been specifically measuring (and storing as bottled samples) atmospheric gas composition since the start of the Cold War.. seventy odd years or so now. Much of our high quality environmental data comes from cold war research - ocean tempretures were first mapped at large scale by Scripps in order to use thermoclines to pinpoint submarines and other sounds in water. In the civilian arena, Cape Grim is of interest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Grim_Air_Archive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Grim_Air_Archive https://researchdata.edu.au/cape-grim-air-archive/678420 https://researchdata.edu.au/cape-grim-air-archive/678420 This and other global references informs us about the changing atmospheric makeup and other experiments inform us about the increase in trapped heat from incoming solar radiation.
        t0bia_s 3y ago
        Those data from measured ocean temperature needs to be readjusted: Before about 1940, the most common method for measuring sea surface temperature was to throw a bucket attached to a rope overboard from a ship, haul it back up, and read the water temperature. The method was far from perfect. Depending on the air temperature, the water temperature could change as the bucket was pulled from the water. (1) In the late 1970s ... tracking what was happening to Earth temperatures was at a relatively primitive state. Much of the relevant weather station data had not been digitized and what had been, was not widely available. Previous estimates of temperature changes ... had focused on the northern hemisphere, but that obviously missed half the planet. (2) interactive map: (3) There is analysis showing differences in model temperature variation models and actual data from balloons and satellites since 1979. (4) Those are few examples how our ability to measure things changes with our developing knowledge. Rising temperatures is not new phenomena. Greenland ice core project (5) showing that there was about 25 dramatic climate changes in history. Its called Dansgaard–Oeschger event. (6), (7) and shows that for example during Younger Dryas (8) there was dramatic temperature decline and increase in few decades. Making predictions on data since 70's are fragile and should be constantly reanalyzed. (1) https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-raw-truth-on-global-temperature-records/ https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-r... (2) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/ (3) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/ (4) https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/christytestimonyemr.pdf https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/christytest... (5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project (6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_eve... (7) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20Heinrich%20and%20Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger%20Events%20-%20Final-OCT%202021.pdf https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20He... (8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - singingfish 3y ago
    Mate, it's not, it's based on extraordinarily well understood theories around the how chemical bonds and the electromagnetic spectrum work. That is the theory behind the mechanism for anthropogenic climate change is based on exactly the same science that allows big chunks of the infrastructure of civilisation to work - that is, chemistry, quantum physics and arithmetic/accountancy.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  you might get similar percentages in the other direction...
t0bia_s 3y ago
Depends on source of your information. Hot Weather.—Many a man has mopped his brow during the summer months of 1884, declaring it was the hottest weather the world ever knew, which, of course, would not be true, for the extreme heat in the record of the past has not been approached during the late summer. In 627, the heat was so great in France and Germany, says the London Standard, that all springs dried up; water became so scarce that many people died of thirst. In 879, work in the field had to be given up; agricultural laborers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun. In 993, the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire. In 1000, rivers ran dry under the protracted heat, the fish were left dry in heaps and putrefied in a few hours. Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying. In 1132, not only did the rivers dry up, but the ground cracked and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up. Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1189; vegetation and plants were burned up. During the battle of Bela, in 1200, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows. The sun of 1277 was also severe; there was an absolute dearth of forage. In 1303 and 1304, the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry. In 1615, the heat throughout Europe became excessive. Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts died in scores. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared to venture out between noon and 4 p.m. In 1718, many shops had to be closed; the theatres were never opened for several months. Not a drop of water fell during six months. In 1753 the thermometer rose to one hundred and eighteen degrees. In 1779, the heat at Bologna was so great that a large number of people died. In July 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat became bad in an hour. In Paris in 1846, the thermometer marked one hundred and twenty-five degrees in the sun. The summers of 1859, 1860, 1869, 1870, 1874, etc., although excessively hot, were not attended by any disaster.” - source: https://books.google.com/books/about/Gaillard_s_Medical_Journal_and_the_Ameri.html?hl=cs&id=Cr9XAAAAMAAJ https://books.google.com/books/about/Gaillard_s_Medical_Jour... - page 473.
- bratwurst3000 3y ago
  Only in regards to the rivers drying out. At that time those rivers weren’t canals like since the 19th century. They where much larger and had more „siderivers“ so water could get into the ground etc much more easily.

singingfish 3y ago

100% of people who mistake correlation for causation end up dead.

textbookrental 3y ago
All the climate modelling is based on correlation, so I thought that's what we were doing. Is there another approach we should be taking?
- wredue 3y ago
  Dude no. We know that the gasses we are releasing cause warming and we know the ratio of those gases naturally occurring vs human pollution.
  - t0bia_s 3y ago
    How do you know?
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - wredue 3y ago
      We know because it’s measurable. You. Literally YOU. Can trivially measure the impact of different gases on temperature. Telling the difference between natural and human produced is probably not doable by you personally, however, human burned pollution tends to have different atomic markers from naturally occurring. We have mandatory pollution reporting. We can do basic maths to find reasonably close numbers to how much of the pollution is natural and how much is from us. With regard to “the prediction models are always wrong” fake news propaganda bullshit: They are always wrong in a way that’s worse for us by underestimating the bad impacts. Every time we improve the models, the outcomes are worse even faster than the models predict, and we have to find why.
      - t0bia_s 3y ago
        Yet you don't know nothing, you believe in catastrophic scenarios. We can measure anecdotaly that temperature is slightly rising. The reason why is it happening and happend in history multiple times is topic for debate that we can explore. However your tone is not open for debate and use exactly same words as those you fight against.
        wredue 3y ago
        It is not “up for debate” that various gasses cause a rise in temperature. You are pretending that our scientific knowledge is at 1600 levels to come to your insane conclusions. You claim that I’m not open for debate, but it’s actually just that there is no debate here. You’re a just printing demonstrable lies on to the internet, for what?
        defrost 3y ago
        Cutting to the guts of the question: > How do you know? posed in ignorance (perhaps genuine ignorance, perhaps feigned) above, we (humans) have been measuring gas properties in isolation for 200 years (and more) and have been specifically measuring (and storing as bottled samples) atmospheric gas composition since the start of the Cold War.. seventy odd years or so now. Much of our high quality environmental data comes from cold war research - ocean tempretures were first mapped at large scale by Scripps in order to use thermoclines to pinpoint submarines and other sounds in water. In the civilian arena, Cape Grim is of interest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Grim_Air_Archive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Grim_Air_Archive https://researchdata.edu.au/cape-grim-air-archive/678420 https://researchdata.edu.au/cape-grim-air-archive/678420 This and other global references informs us about the changing atmospheric makeup and other experiments inform us about the increase in trapped heat from incoming solar radiation.
        t0bia_s 3y ago
        Those data from measured ocean temperature needs to be readjusted: Before about 1940, the most common method for measuring sea surface temperature was to throw a bucket attached to a rope overboard from a ship, haul it back up, and read the water temperature. The method was far from perfect. Depending on the air temperature, the water temperature could change as the bucket was pulled from the water. (1) In the late 1970s ... tracking what was happening to Earth temperatures was at a relatively primitive state. Much of the relevant weather station data had not been digitized and what had been, was not widely available. Previous estimates of temperature changes ... had focused on the northern hemisphere, but that obviously missed half the planet. (2) interactive map: (3) There is analysis showing differences in model temperature variation models and actual data from balloons and satellites since 1979. (4) Those are few examples how our ability to measure things changes with our developing knowledge. Rising temperatures is not new phenomena. Greenland ice core project (5) showing that there was about 25 dramatic climate changes in history. Its called Dansgaard–Oeschger event. (6), (7) and shows that for example during Younger Dryas (8) there was dramatic temperature decline and increase in few decades. Making predictions on data since 70's are fragile and should be constantly reanalyzed. (1) https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-raw-truth-on-global-temperature-records/ https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-r... (2) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/ (3) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/ (4) https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/christytestimonyemr.pdf https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/christytest... (5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project (6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_eve... (7) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20Heinrich%20and%20Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger%20Events%20-%20Final-OCT%202021.pdf https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20He... (8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- singingfish 3y ago
  Mate, it's not, it's based on extraordinarily well understood theories around the how chemical bonds and the electromagnetic spectrum work. That is the theory behind the mechanism for anthropogenic climate change is based on exactly the same science that allows big chunks of the infrastructure of civilisation to work - that is, chemistry, quantum physics and arithmetic/accountancy.
mensetmanusman 3y ago
you might get similar percentages in the other direction...

t0bia_s 3y ago

Depends on source of your information. Hot Weather.—Many a man has mopped his brow during the summer months of 1884, declaring it was the hottest weather the world ever knew, which, of course, would not be true, for the extreme heat in the record of the past has not been approached during the late summer. In 627, the heat was so great in France and Germany, says the London Standard, that all springs dried up; water became so scarce that many people died of thirst. In 879, work in the field had to be given up; agricultural laborers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun. In 993, the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire. In 1000, rivers ran dry under the protracted heat, the fish were left dry in heaps and putrefied in a few hours. Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying. In 1132, not only did the rivers dry up, but the ground cracked and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up. Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1189; vegetation and plants were burned up. During the battle of Bela, in 1200, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows. The sun of 1277 was also severe; there was an absolute dearth of forage. In 1303 and 1304, the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry. In 1615, the heat throughout Europe became excessive. Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts died in scores. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared to venture out between noon and 4 p.m. In 1718, many shops had to be closed; the theatres were never opened for several months. Not a drop of water fell during six months. In 1753 the thermometer rose to one hundred and eighteen degrees. In 1779, the heat at Bologna was so great that a large number of people died. In July 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat became bad in an hour. In Paris in 1846, the thermometer marked one hundred and twenty-five degrees in the sun. The summers of 1859, 1860, 1869, 1870, 1874, etc., although excessively hot, were not attended by any disaster.” - source: https://books.google.com/books/about/Gaillard_s_Medical_Journal_and_the_Ameri.html?hl=cs&id=Cr9XAAAAMAAJ https://books.google.com/books/about/Gaillard_s_Medical_Jour... - page 473.

bratwurst3000 3y ago
Only in regards to the rivers drying out. At that time those rivers weren’t canals like since the 19th century. They where much larger and had more „siderivers“ so water could get into the ground etc much more easily.