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human wave is not the game. The Ukraine-Russia war has shown us how important the technology is. The whole war is fighting with drones to detect and kill enemie

human wave is not the game. The Ukraine-Russia war has shown us how important the technology is. The whole war is fighting with drones to detect and kill enemies.

petre 3y ago
At least in the current Ukraine context: tech + a lot of dumb 155 mm shells, highly mobile artillery. Although guided shells would be even more useful if they were cheaper to build. Russia's human waves were just means to reduce the prison population: practical stalinism 101. They are phasing out prisoner benefits as the recruiting pool is getting smaller. Also there is an increased chance Putin might order be mass mobilization after he wins the elections in May.
- CapricornNoble 3y ago
  > Also there is an increased chance Putin might order be mass mobilization after he wins the elections in May. Increased but still highly unlikely. The Russian military inducts ~260,000 men annually just from conscription. Now that the Ukrainians have exhausted their supplies of ammunition, manpower, and funding, it's unlikely that the AFU can sustain its ability to attrite Russian manpower faster than it can be replaced.
  - petre 3y ago
    The only way for Putin to win in Ukraine is to open new frontlines in Europe to divert attention and resources. And the most likely place is between the Baltics and Poland. That's exactly why part of Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise is taking place there. A surprisingly straightforward article from Xinhua correspondent Zhang Zhang: "The central locations involved in the drill are the Baltic nations, identified by NATO as particularly vulnerable to a possible Russian assault. Other areas include Norway and Romania, situated on the outskirts of the alliance; Poland on the alliance's eastern flank; and Germany as a central hub for reinforcements." https://english.news.cn/20240128/95fbdec4ab7b4285b8f017ffeb175166/c.html https://english.news.cn/20240128/95fbdec4ab7b4285b8f017ffeb1...
paganel 3y ago
> The whole war is fighting with drones to detect and kill enemies. This is a very wrong take. A big continental war like this one in Ukraine is fought with artillery and with enough men capable of holding the territory (already under control or conquered), i.e. the story of WW1 and the WW2 (when it came to the Eastern Front). You don't have that, you lose. Trouble for Ukraine (and for the West supporting Ukraine) is that they're running out of artillery shells and they're running out of Ukrainian men.
- meroes 3y ago
  A “continental” war without air superiority. You think Russia against Greece or Turkey who just got multi dozen gen 5 and 4.5 aircraft (not sure when delivery is) would be the same? No. It’s not even continental. It’s a proxy war.
  - paganel 3y ago
    This is on the same level of hubris as militarly comparing Russia with Italy in February 2022 based on their nominal GDP figures alone, and yet, here we are, two years later and major politicians here in Europe warning us about a future war with the same Russia. I guess the Germans or the Brits didn’t get the memo that the Greek aviation would be enough of an opposing force.
    - meroes 3y ago
      Greece and Turkey while both in NATO have their own rivalry. And enlistment is down in most western counties, so this is a good opportunity to effect a reversal. Many doctrines require a minimum amount of manpower. As for Ukraine and Russia, the War began in 2014. They have been stockpiling artillery for this express tactic for decades now. Anyone who simply compares spending across two arbitrary countries does deserve hubris. But that’s not what’s happening. Why there’s not more Western defense of Ukraine I can’t explain except for present greed over future problem solving, but nothing is that surprising.

human wave is not the game. The Ukraine-Russia war has shown us how important the technology is. The whole war is fighting with drones to detect and kill enemies.

petre 3y ago

At least in the current Ukraine context: tech + a lot of dumb 155 mm shells, highly mobile artillery. Although guided shells would be even more useful if they were cheaper to build. Russia's human waves were just means to reduce the prison population: practical stalinism 101. They are phasing out prisoner benefits as the recruiting pool is getting smaller. Also there is an increased chance Putin might order be mass mobilization after he wins the elections in May.

CapricornNoble 3y ago
> Also there is an increased chance Putin might order be mass mobilization after he wins the elections in May. Increased but still highly unlikely. The Russian military inducts ~260,000 men annually just from conscription. Now that the Ukrainians have exhausted their supplies of ammunition, manpower, and funding, it's unlikely that the AFU can sustain its ability to attrite Russian manpower faster than it can be replaced.
- petre 3y ago
  The only way for Putin to win in Ukraine is to open new frontlines in Europe to divert attention and resources. And the most likely place is between the Baltics and Poland. That's exactly why part of Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise is taking place there. A surprisingly straightforward article from Xinhua correspondent Zhang Zhang: "The central locations involved in the drill are the Baltic nations, identified by NATO as particularly vulnerable to a possible Russian assault. Other areas include Norway and Romania, situated on the outskirts of the alliance; Poland on the alliance's eastern flank; and Germany as a central hub for reinforcements." https://english.news.cn/20240128/95fbdec4ab7b4285b8f017ffeb175166/c.html https://english.news.cn/20240128/95fbdec4ab7b4285b8f017ffeb1...

paganel 3y ago

> The whole war is fighting with drones to detect and kill enemies. This is a very wrong take. A big continental war like this one in Ukraine is fought with artillery and with enough men capable of holding the territory (already under control or conquered), i.e. the story of WW1 and the WW2 (when it came to the Eastern Front). You don't have that, you lose. Trouble for Ukraine (and for the West supporting Ukraine) is that they're running out of artillery shells and they're running out of Ukrainian men.

meroes 3y ago
A “continental” war without air superiority. You think Russia against Greece or Turkey who just got multi dozen gen 5 and 4.5 aircraft (not sure when delivery is) would be the same? No. It’s not even continental. It’s a proxy war.
- paganel 3y ago
  This is on the same level of hubris as militarly comparing Russia with Italy in February 2022 based on their nominal GDP figures alone, and yet, here we are, two years later and major politicians here in Europe warning us about a future war with the same Russia. I guess the Germans or the Brits didn’t get the memo that the Greek aviation would be enough of an opposing force.
  - meroes 3y ago
    Greece and Turkey while both in NATO have their own rivalry. And enlistment is down in most western counties, so this is a good opportunity to effect a reversal. Many doctrines require a minimum amount of manpower. As for Ukraine and Russia, the War began in 2014. They have been stockpiling artillery for this express tactic for decades now. Anyone who simply compares spending across two arbitrary countries does deserve hubris. But that’s not what’s happening. Why there’s not more Western defense of Ukraine I can’t explain except for present greed over future problem solving, but nothing is that surprising.