> The claims they actually expected to win an actual hot war in a few weeks They were not expecting an actual hot war (hence the "Special Military Operation").

> The claims they actually expected to win an actual hot war in a few weeks They were not expecting an actual hot war (hence the "Special Military Operation"). I think that the plan was to quickly capture and/or replace the government, have the country go into chaos, have good "patriotic" people already in place to act as with the new government, and then realign the country towards Russia. Capturing Kyiv or at least forcing the government abroad was a big part of that. But even assuming I was wrong, the main point remains: I think it is clear that they were not expecting a years-long hot war with a neighbor, and that is a massive failure intelligence-wise