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> To estimate state-level rapes, they proportioned the rapes by states based on the FBI's 2022 crime data, which includes rapes. They then multiplied each state
by spiderice 3y ago
> To estimate state-level rapes, they proportioned the rapes by states based on the FBI's 2022 crime data, which includes rapes. They then multiplied each state's rapes by the fraction of rapes likely to result in pregnancy. And finally, adjusted for the months between July 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024 that an abortion ban was in effect in each of the 14 states. Among the 14 states, the number of months in which a ban was in effect ranged from four to 18 months.
So they played around with numbers until they got a result they liked? Come on. This “study” is just rage bait.
- ctrl-j 3y agoWould you really call adjusting a statistical window "playing around with numbers"? It doesn't look like they tried multiple parameters to get a result they liked, they just looked at the time frame that made sense.
- MathMonkeyMan 3y agoMaybe so, but if the logic is sound, then that's a reasonable estimate of rape pregnancies, and the interesting observation is that the number of legal abortions in that time was way smaller. More interesting would be to know what percentage of rape pregnancies were aborted before a state made abortion illegal.