Sure. There is survivor bias. I agree with all these points. What we'd debate is the assigned probabilities. Which is a bit subjective and a sliding scale. T

Sure. There is survivor bias. I agree with all these points. What we'd debate is the assigned probabilities. Which is a bit subjective and a sliding scale. Think at that point there were definitely signs that it was not going to be nothing, and blow over. The US was much more 'head in sand' response, not as you imply, they made some reasonable calculation of probabilities.