4 ms·

this is virtually my strategy too - but keep in mind when the event happens, chances are you won't be able to drive super far without going off road, and even t

this is virtually my strategy too - but keep in mind when the event happens, chances are you won't be able to drive super far without going off road, and even then, you may end up blocked. roads and highways are expected to have massive damage. people dont realize that e.g the entire valley zone of Oregon will have no restoration of infrastructure until potentially more than a year after the event (coming straight from a study I could cite if needed). we're talking no hospitals, no police, no water, no sewer... for more than a year...

ramenbytes 3y ago
Cite for curious folks?
- blueprint 3y ago
  https://www.oregon.gov/oem/Documents/01_ORP_Cascadia.pdf https://www.oregon.gov/oem/Documents/01_ORP_Cascadia.pdf looks like I slightly exaggerated a couple figures and understated others. 3 years to restore healthcare in the valley zone.
7952 3y ago
Yeah I think people overestimate the effectiveness of four wheel vehicles on uneven ground. It is very easy to get bogged down, tip into a ditch, run out of clearence on one side or have major technical issues. And the routes that do exist can get blocked very easily. A pair of boots, a trail bike, or a mountain bike are in a different league on that kind of terrain. You can always get off and push. Obviously a vehicle is good but may just be phase 1 of bugging out. Best to pack the bike, sleeping bag and water purifier.
- LiquidPolymer 3y ago
  Good points. My comment about the mobility of the truck camper applies only if we can in fact, find passable surfaces. The point for us is to be prepared to the best of our ability and I think we have done a good job in the regard. We will have a potential survival advantage. My biggest worry are other, extremely desperate people whom I would be very inclined to help. But this would have limits and things might get gnarly leading into an area I hate to think about - using lethal force to protect my family. Hopefully, simply being visibly armed would be a deterrent, but its hard to game out how bad it might get. My larger point is really about how ill-prepared most of my neighbors are. The recent storm simply highlighted this problem. We were all very comfortable because we had a generator and alternate, heated shelter. I spent a lot of time helping neighbors. I also had the only vehicle (Outback with all wheel drive with blizzak tires - just amazing on ice) on my sloped street that could successfully navigate ice so I was out buying cat food for my elderly neighbor, and buying groceries for our other neighbors with a new baby.
  - 7952 3y ago
    Your neighbours could be your biggest asset, particularly if you already have trust. Survival and defence are a team activity and manpower is good. A lone person may be well armed. But they also needs to cook, haul water, keep an eye out for strangers, remain sane and happy, maybe do child care, sleep.
    - sizzle 3y ago
      I like this take, create a village and watch each other’s back
      - 7952 3y ago
        It is funny how unusual this point of view is nowadays. I guess a fundamental purpose of money is to decouple things from social obligation. You pay for something and you don't have to do anything more than that. But if that breaks down you are back to obligation and reciprocation.
    - LiquidPolymer 3y ago
      This is the ideal scenario. We have a great neighborhood with lovely, helpful people. However, as this last storm pointed out - most of them do not prepare very well for potential disaster situations. I can stock up for my family, and have enough to share, but there will be limits. The lack of prep from my neighbors concerns me. I was glad to help. I just won't be able to feed the neighborhood. A worst case scenario earthquake will be far more damaging and stressful.
  - blueprint 3y ago
    yes, a large threat I have also identified is displaced people trying to survive.

ramenbytes 3y ago

Cite for curious folks?

blueprint 3y ago
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/Documents/01_ORP_Cascadia.pdf https://www.oregon.gov/oem/Documents/01_ORP_Cascadia.pdf looks like I slightly exaggerated a couple figures and understated others. 3 years to restore healthcare in the valley zone.

7952 3y ago

Yeah I think people overestimate the effectiveness of four wheel vehicles on uneven ground. It is very easy to get bogged down, tip into a ditch, run out of clearence on one side or have major technical issues. And the routes that do exist can get blocked very easily. A pair of boots, a trail bike, or a mountain bike are in a different league on that kind of terrain. You can always get off and push. Obviously a vehicle is good but may just be phase 1 of bugging out. Best to pack the bike, sleeping bag and water purifier.

LiquidPolymer 3y ago
Good points. My comment about the mobility of the truck camper applies only if we can in fact, find passable surfaces. The point for us is to be prepared to the best of our ability and I think we have done a good job in the regard. We will have a potential survival advantage. My biggest worry are other, extremely desperate people whom I would be very inclined to help. But this would have limits and things might get gnarly leading into an area I hate to think about - using lethal force to protect my family. Hopefully, simply being visibly armed would be a deterrent, but its hard to game out how bad it might get. My larger point is really about how ill-prepared most of my neighbors are. The recent storm simply highlighted this problem. We were all very comfortable because we had a generator and alternate, heated shelter. I spent a lot of time helping neighbors. I also had the only vehicle (Outback with all wheel drive with blizzak tires - just amazing on ice) on my sloped street that could successfully navigate ice so I was out buying cat food for my elderly neighbor, and buying groceries for our other neighbors with a new baby.
- 7952 3y ago
  Your neighbours could be your biggest asset, particularly if you already have trust. Survival and defence are a team activity and manpower is good. A lone person may be well armed. But they also needs to cook, haul water, keep an eye out for strangers, remain sane and happy, maybe do child care, sleep.
  - sizzle 3y ago
    I like this take, create a village and watch each other’s back
    - 7952 3y ago
      It is funny how unusual this point of view is nowadays. I guess a fundamental purpose of money is to decouple things from social obligation. You pay for something and you don't have to do anything more than that. But if that breaks down you are back to obligation and reciprocation.
  - LiquidPolymer 3y ago
    This is the ideal scenario. We have a great neighborhood with lovely, helpful people. However, as this last storm pointed out - most of them do not prepare very well for potential disaster situations. I can stock up for my family, and have enough to share, but there will be limits. The lack of prep from my neighbors concerns me. I was glad to help. I just won't be able to feed the neighborhood. A worst case scenario earthquake will be far more damaging and stressful.
- blueprint 3y ago
  yes, a large threat I have also identified is displaced people trying to survive.