13 ms·

When people say “the probability doubles” they really mean that the odds double, right? If my probability of dying is .6, it can’t double to 1.2. However if m

• thfuran 3y ago
  Likely they're talking about small probabilities and meant what they said. If not, who knows. (Quite probably not even them)
  • giantg2 3y ago
    I assumed it did actually double as 1 in 100 million miles is an extremely small number to begin with.
• kragen 3y ago
  when they're talking about probabilities like the one in 600 thousand of dying on this trip, they are the same if you have a model where a probability goes outside the (0, 1) range for some input parameter value, that obviously isn't a valid answer, but it may just mean that the parameter value is well outside the model's range of validity. you are surely right that if we extrapolate this probability model of doubling the risk of death per 16 kph speed increase beyond about 400 kph we get invalid probabilities, but i think that probably the model breaks down well before that point