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Not denying that a megathrust earthquake will be a severe disaster. But I think this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. This f

Not denying that a megathrust earthquake will be a severe disaster. But I think this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. This follow-up article by the same author is more levelheaded: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... Notably: > Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape. That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail.

cf100clunk 3y ago
> this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.
ianburrell 3y ago
One thing that causes panic is that the full Cascades quake, 10% in 50 years, will be 9.0. But Portland and Seattle are a long ways from the offshore fault. My understanding is that the shaking will feel like M7 but going on for minutes. It will cause lots of damage, especially since there are unreinforced masonry buildings and old infrastructure. But it won’t flatten things like nearby M9. The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked. OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.
whartung 3y ago
Honestly, the problem west of I-5 is not the real issue. By this I mean, were something like this to happen, west of I-5 suffers its devastation quickly, perhaps a lot of people are lost from quakes or tsunamis or whatever. But, once it's done, it's done and recovery can start. The real issue is east. The quake will tear through this region, which is rough country, potentially doing severe damage to roads and, more notably, bridges. There's a reason FEMA recommends a 3 Day go bag, and, perhaps, 2 weeks in place. And the premise behind that is that once the event is passed, the cavalry will arrive. So, there's little reason for folks to maintain months and years of supplies. Even Katrina was mostly resolved, from an emergency point of view, in less than 2 weeks. This will likely not be the case for eastern part of Oregon. The far east, dry side, sure. But that middle section, no roads, no bridges, rugged terrain, dense woods, not easy for the cavalry to arrive in any length of time. It is very reasonable to expect that aid will not be readily able to reach you (or evacuate you) in, perhaps, months. I think folks in that area need to seriously consider a 60+ day plan to get through something like this. Urban preparation is very difficult. You can store up some supplies for your family, but you're likely surrounded by families. Ye Olde Ant and the Grasshopper fable. So, in truth, it has to be a community effort. Easier said than done. If everyone stocks up some for their neighbors as well, it can go much easier.

cf100clunk 3y ago

> this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.

ianburrell 3y ago

One thing that causes panic is that the full Cascades quake, 10% in 50 years, will be 9.0. But Portland and Seattle are a long ways from the offshore fault. My understanding is that the shaking will feel like M7 but going on for minutes. It will cause lots of damage, especially since there are unreinforced masonry buildings and old infrastructure. But it won’t flatten things like nearby M9. The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked. OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.

whartung 3y ago

Honestly, the problem west of I-5 is not the real issue. By this I mean, were something like this to happen, west of I-5 suffers its devastation quickly, perhaps a lot of people are lost from quakes or tsunamis or whatever. But, once it's done, it's done and recovery can start. The real issue is east. The quake will tear through this region, which is rough country, potentially doing severe damage to roads and, more notably, bridges. There's a reason FEMA recommends a 3 Day go bag, and, perhaps, 2 weeks in place. And the premise behind that is that once the event is passed, the cavalry will arrive. So, there's little reason for folks to maintain months and years of supplies. Even Katrina was mostly resolved, from an emergency point of view, in less than 2 weeks. This will likely not be the case for eastern part of Oregon. The far east, dry side, sure. But that middle section, no roads, no bridges, rugged terrain, dense woods, not easy for the cavalry to arrive in any length of time. It is very reasonable to expect that aid will not be readily able to reach you (or evacuate you) in, perhaps, months. I think folks in that area need to seriously consider a 60+ day plan to get through something like this. Urban preparation is very difficult. You can store up some supplies for your family, but you're likely surrounded by families. Ye Olde Ant and the Grasshopper fable. So, in truth, it has to be a community effort. Easier said than done. If everyone stocks up some for their neighbors as well, it can go much easier.