6 ms·

The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest (2015)

75 points by keiferski 3y ago

sharkweek 3y ago
Seattle resident here. First things first, this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house. Second, on a much more lighthearted note, our state department of transportation released a video simulating different levels of earthquakes along the waterfront. For some reason in the rendering they included a little touristy hot dog stand that is actually there and show it collapsing. I dunno why I find this so funny but to include such a mundane building falling in the foreground of a video that also shows a massive (and now removed!) viaduct highway collapsing… https://youtu.be/hos_uIKwC-c?si=r66wbS7WJdbEoD2G https://youtu.be/hos_uIKwC-c?si=r66wbS7WJdbEoD2G Rest in peace, little hot dog stand…
- zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
  RIP Alaska Way Viaduct. I would go out of my way to drive on it when I would go to Seattle.
- cf100clunk 3y ago
  > this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house A bug out kit too, which can even take the form of a quickly readied RV kept stocked with essentials, assuming one can get to or from mountainous areas in the PNW with it.
  - maroonblazer 3y ago
    How many people have the resources, and space, to keep an RV at the ready??
    - cf100clunk 3y ago
      RVs are all over the place in PNW suburbia. RVing is a hugely popular pasttime. As for actually keeping it at the ready, that's an issue for the owner, not society.
    - jwells89 3y ago
      Yeah in my PNW suburb most people have barely enough space to park a Civic, let alone an RV…
    - LiquidPolymer 3y ago
      It is a minority of people who can afford to own and maintain an RV. I commented about this elsewhere on this thread. My point was about how many people I know who do own an RV, do not seem to consider the emergency shelter potential. Most people around here winterize their RV's which involves dumping the fresh water and hot water tanks and adding anti-freeze to the drain lines. I do not winterize because I want the camper fully stocked and fully fueled. If temps drop below freezing, I heat the thing to keep it ready. If power fails I set the digital thermostat to keep it from freezing. My goal is for it to always be ready to go at a moments notice. Its true that many will not have the space or resources to be this prepared. But if you already have the RV - why not?
      - mgarfias 3y ago
        When our home was threatened by fires in the Oregon Labor Day 2020 hell, the RV was ready to go. Fortunately we didn’t get the go order. Alas the rv was totaled the following feb in the ice storm
- wrs 3y ago
  Also consider putting an automatic gas shutoff valve on your house (and get your neighbors to do the same). They’re a cheap way to decrease the chance that your earthquake kit is on fire just when you need it!
zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
I was almost constantly thinking about this when I lived in Washington. I knew where the tsunami evacuation routes were and my friends thought I was being too paranoid.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
gammarator 3y ago
Not denying that a megathrust earthquake will be a severe disaster. But I think this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. This follow-up article by the same author is more levelheaded: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... Notably: > Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape. That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail.
- cf100clunk 3y ago
  > this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.
- ianburrell 3y ago
  One thing that causes panic is that the full Cascades quake, 10% in 50 years, will be 9.0. But Portland and Seattle are a long ways from the offshore fault. My understanding is that the shaking will feel like M7 but going on for minutes. It will cause lots of damage, especially since there are unreinforced masonry buildings and old infrastructure. But it won’t flatten things like nearby M9. The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked. OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.
stavros 3y ago
> Your right hand represents the North American tectonic plate, which bears on its back, among other things, our entire continent, from One World Trade Center to the Space Needle, in Seattle Truly the two ends of the continent.
- cf100clunk 3y ago
  > Truly the two ends of the continent. Cape Spear and Attu Station would like a word with you. I'm sure you meant ''continental U.S.A.'' sort of.
  - stavros 3y ago
    I was being sarcastic about the article saying "continent" and then only mentioning one country.
    - cf100clunk 3y ago
      I sarcastically replied without having noticed that!
      - stavros 3y ago
        In a way, we're in sync.
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  Even if you meant "the Lower 48" Seattle is not the west edge. There's the Olympic peninsula.
mlhpdx 3y ago
This kind of “inevitable uncertainty” is uncomfortable. It will happen, and becomes more likely as time goes on, but it’s unlikely to happen today or tomorrow. It’s possibly catastrophic, but likely to be “only” severe. Geology in Oregon is somewhat terrifying. The Columbia River gorge wasn’t a slow gradual cut over millions of years — it was a roaring, rushing calamity of water and ice ripping out solid rock. And, the rock? Laid down by lava flows so large they span hundreds of miles and are deeper than buildings are tall. The violence of Mother Nature.
- juunpp 3y ago
  Rip & tear
- deeth_starr_v 3y ago
  Beautifully said. The whole pacific west is a scary wonder. Only thing I’d contest is that it’s just as likely to happen today or tomorrow as next year. Best to be prepared.
  - mlhpdx 3y ago
    One of my favorite such observations is in winter. Arriving at the top of the Mt Hood Express chairlift, soaking in blue sky and white snow, a smell of sulfur is often in the air. The magma chamber of this “potentially active” volcano is venting gases from the rock at my side.
  - AlbertCory 3y ago
    I was about to say that (likelihood does not increase just because it hasn't happened), but then I realized that stresses along the faults DO increase, so maybe it does get more likely. I'm not a geologist.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  The scab lands around the gorge were caused by an ice dam breaking at the end of the last ice age. It's not going to happen without another ice age.
jandrewrogers 3y ago
Many people overlook that the most dangerous fault in Seattle is its eponymous fault, a shallow major thrust fault that runs through the city and the bodies of water that surround it. The Cascadia subduction zone fault can produce stronger earthquakes but is far away.
whycome 3y ago
Less than a year before Katrina, PBS’ Nova ScienceNow looked at the potential effects of a hurricane hitting New Orleans (including failure of the levies). https://youtu.be/XjZ5mAXcAy0?si=1CfLMxuqmZ7wYI-r https://youtu.be/XjZ5mAXcAy0?si=1CfLMxuqmZ7wYI-r https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/education/earth/hurricanes-new-orleans-threat.html https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/education/earth/hurricanes-new... https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/hurricanes/ https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/hurricanes/
cf100clunk 3y ago
The Pacific Northwest has it all! Potential high risk events: * tectonic plate(s) subduction earthquake * tsunami * volcanism * wildfire * Arctic outflow weather pattern
- avidiax 3y ago
  You forgot the risk of a lahar. Supposedly the lahar from a major earthquake could wipe out Sea-tac airport and all the communities south of Seattle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahar
  - cf100clunk 3y ago
    Thanks, I suppose that lahar is a subset of volcanism, but somewhat relatedly I also left out: * landslides * solufluction
LiquidPolymer 3y ago
As Portland resident, I remember the waves this article made around here. Friends and family prepared "go-bags" and "bug-out kits" and dutifully stocked away extra provisions. This has mostly all evaporated into distant memory and nobody seems to have the same level preparedness anymore. This was just the time my wife and I purchased a slide-in truck camper. In my view, a truck camper is a perfect emergency shelter. We keep it fully fueled, with full fresh water tanks, and fully stocked with provisions. The camper has a built-in generator, solar chargers, 50+ gallons of fresh water, hot shower, kitchen, comfortable bed, fridge, freezer, etc. It sits in our driveway. It is fully mobile - it can also go anywhere the dually truck can go. We've had to use it as an emergency shelter twice now because of ice storms knocking out power to our home and neighborhood for days at a time with ambient temps below 15 degrees. I keep 5 extra propane tanks in my shed along with extra water and shelf stable provisions. In the next month, we are going to install a transfer switch on the breaker panel in our house that will allow us to run the house from the camper generator. It will be limited, but we will be able to keep the furnace and fridge going. Nobody I know who owns an RV sets it up as an emergency shelter. I don't know why - but the threat of a major, disastrous earthquake is very real. Further, many of my neighbors were ill-prepared for the most recent major storm two weeks ago (despite plenty of warning) and grumbled a lot about the city falling down on its job. In a major earthquake these people are going to be desperate and many people will die. The city will be broken and if you rely on emergency services - you are going to be lucky to survive. I'm not a prepper. We bought the camper for off-grid camping in remote wilderness - but I do believe in common sense preparation for "The Big One". Despite the flurry of attention this article created in 2015 - most people have put it out of their mind.
- blueprint 3y ago
  this is virtually my strategy too - but keep in mind when the event happens, chances are you won't be able to drive super far without going off road, and even then, you may end up blocked. roads and highways are expected to have massive damage. people dont realize that e.g the entire valley zone of Oregon will have no restoration of infrastructure until potentially more than a year after the event (coming straight from a study I could cite if needed). we're talking no hospitals, no police, no water, no sewer... for more than a year...
michaelcampbell 3y ago
https://archive.is/hXE5E https://archive.is/hXE5E
pgray 3y ago
if you want to learn more this guy has some awesome videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXZD0NBVR2c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXZD0NBVR2c
ilovecurl 3y ago
A great book for those interested in this subject is Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest by Sandi Doughton.
oglop 3y ago
I hope my choice of west seattle because of the hill works out in the worst case scenario.
alxjsn 3y ago
I highly recommend the book Practical Doomsday: https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ It was originally a long-form blog post by Michal Zalewski and he turned into a book with even more content.
poulsbohemian 3y ago
Had a presentation at Rotary on this recently... turns out that Spokane, Walla Walla, and the Tri-Cities are intended to be centers that will house displaced persons and queue supplies for the relief / rebuild effort. I recently got talking to someone in Olympia who works in disaster relief who indicated that the state / feds responsible for our region have exactly zero contracts or supplies in place, rather they have big lists of what they will need to buy on the spot and a big list of who might possibly have it. Similarly, it turns out that eastern Washington is not as immune to all of these as we thought. Many know about the stateline earthquake that happened back in the 1930s (??) but apparently there is active tectonic movement, I believe in the area of Wallula gap. Good times.
kristianp 3y ago
1 year ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32465615 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32465615 4 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22072494 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22072494 3 years ago (related link to Wikipedia page): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27045463 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27045463 10 months ago about warm liquid from the fault: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35559145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35559145

75 points by keiferski 3y ago

Seattle resident here. First things first, this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house. Second, on a much more lighthearted note, our state department of transportation released a video simulating different levels of earthquakes along the waterfront. For some reason in the rendering they included a little touristy hot dog stand that is actually there and show it collapsing. I dunno why I find this so funny but to include such a mundane building falling in the foreground of a video that also shows a massive (and now removed!) viaduct highway collapsing… https://youtu.be/hos_uIKwC-c?si=r66wbS7WJdbEoD2G https://youtu.be/hos_uIKwC-c?si=r66wbS7WJdbEoD2G Rest in peace, little hot dog stand…

zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
RIP Alaska Way Viaduct. I would go out of my way to drive on it when I would go to Seattle.
cf100clunk 3y ago
> this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house A bug out kit too, which can even take the form of a quickly readied RV kept stocked with essentials, assuming one can get to or from mountainous areas in the PNW with it.
- maroonblazer 3y ago
  How many people have the resources, and space, to keep an RV at the ready??
  - cf100clunk 3y ago
    RVs are all over the place in PNW suburbia. RVing is a hugely popular pasttime. As for actually keeping it at the ready, that's an issue for the owner, not society.
  - jwells89 3y ago
    Yeah in my PNW suburb most people have barely enough space to park a Civic, let alone an RV…
  - LiquidPolymer 3y ago
    It is a minority of people who can afford to own and maintain an RV. I commented about this elsewhere on this thread. My point was about how many people I know who do own an RV, do not seem to consider the emergency shelter potential. Most people around here winterize their RV's which involves dumping the fresh water and hot water tanks and adding anti-freeze to the drain lines. I do not winterize because I want the camper fully stocked and fully fueled. If temps drop below freezing, I heat the thing to keep it ready. If power fails I set the digital thermostat to keep it from freezing. My goal is for it to always be ready to go at a moments notice. Its true that many will not have the space or resources to be this prepared. But if you already have the RV - why not?
    - mgarfias 3y ago
      When our home was threatened by fires in the Oregon Labor Day 2020 hell, the RV was ready to go. Fortunately we didn’t get the go order. Alas the rv was totaled the following feb in the ice storm
wrs 3y ago
Also consider putting an automatic gas shutoff valve on your house (and get your neighbors to do the same). They’re a cheap way to decrease the chance that your earthquake kit is on fire just when you need it!

zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago

I was almost constantly thinking about this when I lived in Washington. I knew where the tsunami evacuation routes were and my friends thought I was being too paranoid.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

gammarator 3y ago

Not denying that a megathrust earthquake will be a severe disaster. But I think this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. This follow-up article by the same author is more levelheaded: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... Notably: > Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape. That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail.

cf100clunk 3y ago
> this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker. It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.
ianburrell 3y ago
One thing that causes panic is that the full Cascades quake, 10% in 50 years, will be 9.0. But Portland and Seattle are a long ways from the offshore fault. My understanding is that the shaking will feel like M7 but going on for minutes. It will cause lots of damage, especially since there are unreinforced masonry buildings and old infrastructure. But it won’t flatten things like nearby M9. The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked. OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.

stavros 3y ago

> Your right hand represents the North American tectonic plate, which bears on its back, among other things, our entire continent, from One World Trade Center to the Space Needle, in Seattle Truly the two ends of the continent.

cf100clunk 3y ago
> Truly the two ends of the continent. Cape Spear and Attu Station would like a word with you. I'm sure you meant ''continental U.S.A.'' sort of.
- stavros 3y ago
  I was being sarcastic about the article saying "continent" and then only mentioning one country.
  - cf100clunk 3y ago
    I sarcastically replied without having noticed that!
    - stavros 3y ago
      In a way, we're in sync.
AlbertCory 3y ago
Even if you meant "the Lower 48" Seattle is not the west edge. There's the Olympic peninsula.

mlhpdx 3y ago

This kind of “inevitable uncertainty” is uncomfortable. It will happen, and becomes more likely as time goes on, but it’s unlikely to happen today or tomorrow. It’s possibly catastrophic, but likely to be “only” severe. Geology in Oregon is somewhat terrifying. The Columbia River gorge wasn’t a slow gradual cut over millions of years — it was a roaring, rushing calamity of water and ice ripping out solid rock. And, the rock? Laid down by lava flows so large they span hundreds of miles and are deeper than buildings are tall. The violence of Mother Nature.

juunpp 3y ago
Rip & tear
deeth_starr_v 3y ago
Beautifully said. The whole pacific west is a scary wonder. Only thing I’d contest is that it’s just as likely to happen today or tomorrow as next year. Best to be prepared.
- mlhpdx 3y ago
  One of my favorite such observations is in winter. Arriving at the top of the Mt Hood Express chairlift, soaking in blue sky and white snow, a smell of sulfur is often in the air. The magma chamber of this “potentially active” volcano is venting gases from the rock at my side.
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  I was about to say that (likelihood does not increase just because it hasn't happened), but then I realized that stresses along the faults DO increase, so maybe it does get more likely. I'm not a geologist.
WalterBright 3y ago
The scab lands around the gorge were caused by an ice dam breaking at the end of the last ice age. It's not going to happen without another ice age.

jandrewrogers 3y ago

Many people overlook that the most dangerous fault in Seattle is its eponymous fault, a shallow major thrust fault that runs through the city and the bodies of water that surround it. The Cascadia subduction zone fault can produce stronger earthquakes but is far away.

whycome 3y ago

Less than a year before Katrina, PBS’ Nova ScienceNow looked at the potential effects of a hurricane hitting New Orleans (including failure of the levies). https://youtu.be/XjZ5mAXcAy0?si=1CfLMxuqmZ7wYI-r https://youtu.be/XjZ5mAXcAy0?si=1CfLMxuqmZ7wYI-r https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/education/earth/hurricanes-new-orleans-threat.html https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/education/earth/hurricanes-new... https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/hurricanes/ https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/hurricanes/

cf100clunk 3y ago

The Pacific Northwest has it all! Potential high risk events: * tectonic plate(s) subduction earthquake * tsunami * volcanism * wildfire * Arctic outflow weather pattern

avidiax 3y ago
You forgot the risk of a lahar. Supposedly the lahar from a major earthquake could wipe out Sea-tac airport and all the communities south of Seattle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahar
- cf100clunk 3y ago
  Thanks, I suppose that lahar is a subset of volcanism, but somewhat relatedly I also left out: * landslides * solufluction

LiquidPolymer 3y ago

As Portland resident, I remember the waves this article made around here. Friends and family prepared "go-bags" and "bug-out kits" and dutifully stocked away extra provisions. This has mostly all evaporated into distant memory and nobody seems to have the same level preparedness anymore. This was just the time my wife and I purchased a slide-in truck camper. In my view, a truck camper is a perfect emergency shelter. We keep it fully fueled, with full fresh water tanks, and fully stocked with provisions. The camper has a built-in generator, solar chargers, 50+ gallons of fresh water, hot shower, kitchen, comfortable bed, fridge, freezer, etc. It sits in our driveway. It is fully mobile - it can also go anywhere the dually truck can go. We've had to use it as an emergency shelter twice now because of ice storms knocking out power to our home and neighborhood for days at a time with ambient temps below 15 degrees. I keep 5 extra propane tanks in my shed along with extra water and shelf stable provisions. In the next month, we are going to install a transfer switch on the breaker panel in our house that will allow us to run the house from the camper generator. It will be limited, but we will be able to keep the furnace and fridge going. Nobody I know who owns an RV sets it up as an emergency shelter. I don't know why - but the threat of a major, disastrous earthquake is very real. Further, many of my neighbors were ill-prepared for the most recent major storm two weeks ago (despite plenty of warning) and grumbled a lot about the city falling down on its job. In a major earthquake these people are going to be desperate and many people will die. The city will be broken and if you rely on emergency services - you are going to be lucky to survive. I'm not a prepper. We bought the camper for off-grid camping in remote wilderness - but I do believe in common sense preparation for "The Big One". Despite the flurry of attention this article created in 2015 - most people have put it out of their mind.

blueprint 3y ago
this is virtually my strategy too - but keep in mind when the event happens, chances are you won't be able to drive super far without going off road, and even then, you may end up blocked. roads and highways are expected to have massive damage. people dont realize that e.g the entire valley zone of Oregon will have no restoration of infrastructure until potentially more than a year after the event (coming straight from a study I could cite if needed). we're talking no hospitals, no police, no water, no sewer... for more than a year...

michaelcampbell 3y ago

https://archive.is/hXE5E https://archive.is/hXE5E

pgray 3y ago

if you want to learn more this guy has some awesome videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXZD0NBVR2c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXZD0NBVR2c

ilovecurl 3y ago

A great book for those interested in this subject is Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest by Sandi Doughton.

oglop 3y ago

I hope my choice of west seattle because of the hill works out in the worst case scenario.

alxjsn 3y ago

I highly recommend the book Practical Doomsday: https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ It was originally a long-form blog post by Michal Zalewski and he turned into a book with even more content.

poulsbohemian 3y ago

Had a presentation at Rotary on this recently... turns out that Spokane, Walla Walla, and the Tri-Cities are intended to be centers that will house displaced persons and queue supplies for the relief / rebuild effort. I recently got talking to someone in Olympia who works in disaster relief who indicated that the state / feds responsible for our region have exactly zero contracts or supplies in place, rather they have big lists of what they will need to buy on the spot and a big list of who might possibly have it. Similarly, it turns out that eastern Washington is not as immune to all of these as we thought. Many know about the stateline earthquake that happened back in the 1930s (??) but apparently there is active tectonic movement, I believe in the area of Wallula gap. Good times.

kristianp 3y ago

1 year ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32465615 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32465615 4 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22072494 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22072494 3 years ago (related link to Wikipedia page): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27045463 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27045463 10 months ago about warm liquid from the fault: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35559145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35559145