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This truck is going to be a complete disaster in every conceivable way for Tesla. You've got a TAM on that thing of like.... maybe a few million people on earth

This truck is going to be a complete disaster in every conceivable way for Tesla. You've got a TAM on that thing of like.... maybe a few million people on earth? And even then, it's just going to be a silly short-lived fad for the ones who do. They more or less did the same idiotic thing as Ford with the Lighting. Tease a "$35k" starting MSRP for all the publicity, convince themselves they had a hit, and overcommit on manufacturing resources accordingly. Then, when the true out-the-door price becomes double that, act all surprised pikachu when no one shows up to buy. Add to that the complete torching of any Tesla brand value left by Elon over the last couple years, and things are looking pretty grim over there. Stock at it's lowest point since joining the S&P 3 years ago, and sales growth hitting a brick wall.

engineer_22 3y ago
Buy buy buy
1970-01-01 3y ago
Very bearish take. A complete ROI is like half a million sales, and they still have two million preorders.
- NotSammyHagar 3y ago
  I don't think they'll ever sell many of time. It's just not that compelling of a vehicle, the other ev trucks (rivian and f150ev, plus some new ones coming reasonably soon like chevy silverado) look like more practical vehicles, if you actually need one. Tesla has that great drivetrain but when superchargers open up to the others, I really think there's no reason for the ct to exist. I guess it's great that it's a low volume 48v testbed.
  - 1970-01-01 3y ago
    They need to convert less than 1/3 of their preorders to make a successful truck. After this it's all profit.
AlexandrB 3y ago
If I worked 3 jobs as a software developer I'd probably be fired for "moonlighting" from all 3 of them. Elon's attention is ridiculously split between Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter/X (oh and maybe X.ai, whatever that is). If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd be pissed. But then again, this truck seems like it might have been Elon's pet project - so maybe it's better that he's less involved in Tesla? Who the hell knows. A lot of tradeoffs were made in favour of aesthetics and marketing at the cost of functionality with this one[1]. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-manual-road-salt-corrosion-steel-2024-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-manual-road...
- plorkyeran 3y ago
  Also Neuralink and Boring. Tesla shareholders don't have much room to be mad about this, though. His attention's been split for a very long time, so either this was something that you knew would be the case when you bought Tesla stock, or you've made a vast amount of money off Tesla despite it.
RetpolineDrama 3y ago
But does it have less space than a nomad?
FireBeyond 3y ago
> Then, when the true out-the-door price becomes double that, act all surprised pikachu when no one shows up to buy. Double that plus an additional two year delay, while Tesla sells to the customers willing to buy the $80K+ and $100K+ models.
tomcam 3y ago
This isn’t an answer or even a disagreement. But don’t they have the #1 best selling car in the world?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ramesh31 3y ago
  >But don’t they have the #1 best selling car in the world? No. Fifth in the US: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars... And barely top ten globally: https://medium.com/@wiack/what-is-the-most-sold-car-in-the-world-9e36710038bd https://medium.com/@wiack/what-is-the-most-sold-car-in-the-w...
  - brandonagr2 3y ago
    Did you just link to a north america only and a two year old article to try and refute the statement that Model Y was the most popular vehicle model in the world last year? "Topping the charts in Europe and China enabled the Model Y to lead the field in total world sales, despite it sitting in only fifth place in the United States, behind the RAV4, and the heavyweight Dodge, Chevy and Ford pickups that America loves so much." https://www.hagerty.co.uk/articles/news-articles/the-worlds-best-selling-car-is-the-tesla-model-y/ https://www.hagerty.co.uk/articles/news-articles/the-worlds-... https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling-car-2023 https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    Model Y was 1.2 million in 2023. So by your second link, that would have put it in 2nd place in 2022 behind the Corolla's 1.5M. But it looks like Corolla sales were down significantly in 2023. https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/
  - tzs 3y ago
    Your second link is for the 2022 model year. Model Y sales picked up quite a bit in 2023 [1]. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-be-top-selling-vehicle-in-the-world-in-2023/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-...

engineer_22 3y ago

Buy buy buy

1970-01-01 3y ago

Very bearish take. A complete ROI is like half a million sales, and they still have two million preorders.

NotSammyHagar 3y ago
I don't think they'll ever sell many of time. It's just not that compelling of a vehicle, the other ev trucks (rivian and f150ev, plus some new ones coming reasonably soon like chevy silverado) look like more practical vehicles, if you actually need one. Tesla has that great drivetrain but when superchargers open up to the others, I really think there's no reason for the ct to exist. I guess it's great that it's a low volume 48v testbed.
- 1970-01-01 3y ago
  They need to convert less than 1/3 of their preorders to make a successful truck. After this it's all profit.

AlexandrB 3y ago

If I worked 3 jobs as a software developer I'd probably be fired for "moonlighting" from all 3 of them. Elon's attention is ridiculously split between Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter/X (oh and maybe X.ai, whatever that is). If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd be pissed. But then again, this truck seems like it might have been Elon's pet project - so maybe it's better that he's less involved in Tesla? Who the hell knows. A lot of tradeoffs were made in favour of aesthetics and marketing at the cost of functionality with this one[1]. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-manual-road-salt-corrosion-steel-2024-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-manual-road...

plorkyeran 3y ago
Also Neuralink and Boring. Tesla shareholders don't have much room to be mad about this, though. His attention's been split for a very long time, so either this was something that you knew would be the case when you bought Tesla stock, or you've made a vast amount of money off Tesla despite it.

RetpolineDrama 3y ago

But does it have less space than a nomad?

FireBeyond 3y ago

> Then, when the true out-the-door price becomes double that, act all surprised pikachu when no one shows up to buy. Double that plus an additional two year delay, while Tesla sells to the customers willing to buy the $80K+ and $100K+ models.

tomcam 3y ago

This isn’t an answer or even a disagreement. But don’t they have the #1 best selling car in the world?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ramesh31 3y ago
>But don’t they have the #1 best selling car in the world? No. Fifth in the US: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars... And barely top ten globally: https://medium.com/@wiack/what-is-the-most-sold-car-in-the-world-9e36710038bd https://medium.com/@wiack/what-is-the-most-sold-car-in-the-w...
- brandonagr2 3y ago
  Did you just link to a north america only and a two year old article to try and refute the statement that Model Y was the most popular vehicle model in the world last year? "Topping the charts in Europe and China enabled the Model Y to lead the field in total world sales, despite it sitting in only fifth place in the United States, behind the RAV4, and the heavyweight Dodge, Chevy and Ford pickups that America loves so much." https://www.hagerty.co.uk/articles/news-articles/the-worlds-best-selling-car-is-the-tesla-model-y/ https://www.hagerty.co.uk/articles/news-articles/the-worlds-... https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling-car-2023 https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Model Y was 1.2 million in 2023. So by your second link, that would have put it in 2nd place in 2022 behind the Corolla's 1.5M. But it looks like Corolla sales were down significantly in 2023. https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/
- tzs 3y ago
  Your second link is for the 2022 model year. Model Y sales picked up quite a bit in 2023 [1]. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-be-top-selling-vehicle-in-the-world-in-2023/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-...