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I do think that their future Feb ruling is going to call for a ceasefire. If they called for one now, Israel & especially the US were just going to ignore it an
by aaomidi 3y ago
I do think that their future Feb ruling is going to call for a ceasefire. If they called for one now, Israel & especially the US were just going to ignore it and reduce the power of the court.
Israel has created a beast that I don't think they can control themselves. I do think that the court is going to get more legitimacy after they explicitly tell Israel to __chill__, for Israel not to chill, and then get the ceasefire ruling against them & potentially an intensification of the genocide case.
Meanwhile, unfortunately, real people are suffering so these political games can be played.
I am so deeply disappointed in the Biden administration here. They're throwing away a lot of the good work they've done, and are actively getting Trump elected. People, naturally, do not want to participate in an election that is giving them a choice between ${person_currently_helping_a_genocide} and ${person_that_will_intensify_genocide}. You're just going to get voter apathy, and the consequences from that.
- nerdponx 3y ago[flagged]
- mardifoufs 3y agoLol yeah George w bush at least just focused on killing 1m people in the middle east instead of being yucky!
- StriverGuy 3y agoDoes Hamas have to adhere to an ICJ ordered ceasefire?
- threeseed 3y agoNo. Because they are a terrorist organisation. Israel is expected to because they are not.
- mantas 3y agoHamas is democratically elected government in Gaza.
- aaomidi 3y agoReally? Democratically elected? Elections in Gaza, over a decade ago, are the bar for democracy now?
- envfriendly 3y agoWhile that's technically true, they were elected in 2006 and since then no elections have been held. Not only that, members of the Hamas murdered Fatah rivals in the years that followed. Not to mention that most of the population today in Gaza are so young that they didn't even vote Hamas in. So while they have majority support, it's not like they've had any real alternative.
- mikrotikker 3y ago[flagged]
- Sporktacular 3y agoPlease put some more effort into researching your talking points. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-electe...
- dang 3y agoPlease make your substantive points without swipes. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- orochimaaru 3y agoNot entirely true. Yes, they were elected in 2007 but they have not allowed the Fatah after that. The last election may have been 2012. So considering the amount of time elapsed I wouldn’t consider them legitimately elected. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip
- pphysch 3y agoHamas/Al-Qassam Brigades outright said today that they would willingly comply with a ceasefire order.
- eej71 3y agoI think its reasonable to expect the same level of adherance to such a ceasefire that was also in place prior to Oct 7th.
- mrguyorama 3y agoAnd we should believe that why? They have also said they would do Oct 7th again as many times as they could.
- pphysch 3y agoYou only have to believe what you want to believe. I'm just answering the GP's question in the most direct possible way, by referencing the answer of a primary party. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-will-abide-by-any-icj-ceasefire-order-if-israel-reciprocates-2024-01-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-will...
- djakaitis 3y agoThey (Hamas) broke the first temporary cease fire several times. I highly doubt their sincerity.
- xenospn 3y agoI can assure you Israel will most likely ignore any resolution that does not involve the hostages returning.
- freeone3000 3y ago[flagged]
- MisterBastahrd 3y ago[flagged]
- GordonS 3y agoIf they cared about the hostages, they wouldn't be bombing them to death on a daily basis, shooting those that escape, or gassing them in tunnels. The hostages are nothing more than political pawns to Netanyahu. Keep in mind that Hamas reiterated their ceasefire deal recently, which includes the release of all hostages, and Israel rejected it.
- halflife 3y agoIt also included the release of the thousands of terrorists that were captured in Israeli borders in oct 7th. People with actual blood on their hands, and a guarantee for hamas to stay in power. Moreover, Israel offered hamas a ceasefire if they release all the hostages and exile their top 6 leaders. That offer was rejected by hamas. So please don’t present such a one sided view
- GordonS 3y ago> Moreover, Israel offered hamas a ceasefire if they release all the hostages and exile their top 6 leaders. That offer was rejected by hamas. That wasn't a serious ceasefire offer, and you've left out the reasons why: it was a pause of 2 months, not a ceasefire offer at all! Furthermore, Israel wouldn't release the hostages they are holding. Why would anyone agree to release the hostages in exchange for nothing but a brief pause of genocide? Netanyahu knew Hamas wouldn't agree to it; he only even made the offer because he'd turned down the Hamas offer first, and so needed a different story for the media to run with. Which worked just fine of course - MSM ran with "Hamas reject ceasefire" without even mentioning the Hamas offer.
- shmatt 3y ago[flagged]
- explaininjs 3y agoI don’t love Trump, but there’s no denying there was far less war, and especially US-funded war, when he was in office. Ukraine-Russia massively escalated as soon as someone in the pocket of the military industrial complex got put in power, as Putin knew it would, and Israel followed suit soon after.
- albntomat0 3y agoI find it hard to believe there’s correlation between the beginnings of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas and who the US president is. If anything, Russia and Hamas are each less likely to spark each conflict (in the specific sense of invading Ukraine and 7 October, not the preconditions) knowing that the US is more likely to provide arms to Ukraine and Israel.
- tumsfestival 3y agoConsidering Hamas' plan all along was to martyrize the Gaza population by feeding it to the lions, subsequently sabotaging Israel's relations with its neighbors and the global community, it does make sense they decided to provoke a war during Biden's term, a very outspoken zionist.
- explaininjs 3y agoBut Israel is far more likely to want conflict to occur. Evidence of such desire would take the form of ignoring intel from international community stating that an attack was planned, and allowing human-sized slow moving targets to pass through the air defense systems unassailed.
- aaomidi 3y agoI'm not sure what I will do, but I'm not voting for Trump either way. There is a lot written about civil disobedience through not partaking in electoral politics, and that's _likely_ the direction I'm going to go if Biden does not change his tone (and hopefully actually do a proper apology for his actions so far). This sucks, and I'll participate in local and even congressional elections, but for president I can not really find myself voting for Biden. I do not expect myself to agree 100% with any candidate, but there are certain red-lines that a candidate can not cross. I have a few of those, being anti-abortion is not something I can tolerate in any candidate. Being pro-mass-killing-looking-like-genocide is also one. I suspect this feeling is not unique to me.
- bawolff 3y agoIs that even possible procedurally? the preliminary hearing is done. They are meeting in feb to discuss the report on the things ordered, but i dont think they can just randomly make more orders at that point that aren't related to the granted orders. [Ianal]
- aaomidi 3y agoFrom my understanding, if Israel doesn't show that they're able to reduce civilian deaths, they can grant South Africa's ask on the case which (from my understanding) is effectively ordering Israel to stop the attacks, and asking the world to help enforce it.
- bawolff 3y agoThe court didn't even order them to reduce civilian deaths. They do have to submit a report on their implementation of the orders, but reducing civilian deaths wasn't on the list of things they had to report on.
- theyinwhy 3y agoThe US, under whichever administration, is in a very difficult position here. If the US stops all support immediately, this could be the end of Israel. Would that be just? I see a president carefully dancing on the thin line of supporting the Israel state while using the US leverage to stop the war (latest example: sending the CIA chief to the negotiating table). But this needs to be done without enabling Israel's biggest adversaries that support a Jihad against the people of Israel.
- handoflixue 3y ago> If the US stops all support immediately, this could be the end of Israel. How would Israel disappear? Palestine is clearly no match for them - who else is expected to suddenly move in? I certainly think we could stop funding their military while still pledging to support them if someone actually tries to invade. Keep in mind, Israel has it's own defense budget - it's not like it's military just disappears when US funding dries up
- solatic 3y agoIt's a common fallacy that money equates to purchasing power. That is only true so long as there continues to be a market with stable supply and stable prices. After COVID-19, many people had plenty of money, but you simply could not buy masks or vaccines at any price if there simply were no longer any to be sold. Militaries are just as interconnected as anybody else. They depend on supplies of weapons and munitions. If the supply is gone, the size of the budget doesn't matter.
- mantas 3y agoIsrael has quite a lot of domestic defense industry.
- stcroixx 3y agoIran is who is expected to suddenly move in under this scenario.
- oatmeal1 3y agoTrump wouldn't intensify the genocide. Not just because Israel currently has carte blanche to do what it wants, but also because of personal animosity with Netanyahu.
- mandmandam 3y agoNetanyahu and Trump been best friends since the '80s. Netanyahu was even friends with Trump's dad. I wouldn't put too much stock in any kayfabe between them.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Aunche 3y ago> I am so deeply disappointed in the Biden administration here. What do you expect him to do? With or without any assistance, Israel has more than enough weapons completely annihilate Gaza. Don't forget that they likely have nuclear capabilities. Israel believes they are demonstrating restraint and this restraint is the first thing to go if Israel feels like it's being backed into a corner.
- aaomidi 3y agoThings like this are bad: https://apnews.com/article/us-israel-gaza-arms-hamas-bypass-congress-1dc77f20aac4a797df6a2338b677da4f https://apnews.com/article/us-israel-gaza-arms-hamas-bypass-... More public denouncement of what Israel is doing. Get the Department of State to start sanctioning heads of state of Israel that are actively calling for a genocide. He's effectively done nothing other than "handling it in private."
- krainboltgreene 3y ago> What do you expect him to do? At least as much as Ronald Regan: https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/08/12/A-shocked-and-outraged-President-Reagan-telephoned-Israeli-Prime/8829397972800/ https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/08/12/A-shocked-and-outrag...
- Aunche 3y agoA major difference is that Israel instigated the first large scale attacks in the 1982 War, whereas Hamas instigated the ongoing war.
- krainboltgreene 3y agoThis is only the interpretation if you ignore the various killings of palestinians and journalists prior to October 7th at the hands of IDF: https://cpj.org/reports/2023/05/deadly-pattern-20-journalists-died-by-israeli-military-fire-in-22-years-no-one-has-been-held-accountable/ https://cpj.org/reports/2023/05/deadly-pattern-20-journalist... Or when Israel bombed Gaza two months after the previous cease fire: https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-bombs-gaza-city-2nd-day-strikes-breaking/story?id=78345366 https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-bombs-gaza-city-...
- zogrodea 3y agoI’m not a fan of Trump’s domestic policies, but I’m absolutely sure that he has the moral high-ground over Biden right now. Trump used to be a supporter of Israel and to some extent still is, but he did during his presidency see that the Palestinians want peace more than the other side. I can’t imagine Trump going behind Congress’ back to arm Israel as Biden has done. https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-i-thought-israelis-would-do-anything-for-peace-but-found-that-not-to-be-true/#:~:text=Trump%20said%20he%20believed%20that,together%2C%20talking%20about%20many%20things https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-i-thought-israelis-would.... Apparently, those still supporting Biden will throw human lives under the bus for a more comfortable home life.
- mrguyorama 3y ago[flagged]
- zogrodea 3y agoThe conflict didn’t start on October 7th. There were still innocent kids being shot by IDF soldiers before then. This is before October 7th, from September 2023. ‘ 2023 marks deadliest year on record for children in the occupied West Bank“ https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/2023-marks-deadliest-year-record-children-occupied-west-bank https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/...
- mrkeen 3y ago> I can’t imagine Trump going behind Congress’ back to arm Israel as Biden has done. I absolutely 100% can imagine it. I would go so far as to characterise him as: 1) Pro-Israel: > On December 6, 2017, the United States of America officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital city of the State of Israel. American president Donald Trump, who signed the presidential proclamation, also ordered the relocation of the American diplomatic mission to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv [...]. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the decision and praised the announcement by the Trump administration. > Trump's decision was rejected by the vast majority of world leaders; the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting on December 7, where 14 out of 15 members condemned it, but the motion was overturned by U.S. veto power. 2) Non-cooperative with Congress: > The United States federal government shutdown from midnight EST on December 22, 2018, until January 25, 2019 (35 days) was the longest government shutdown in history. > The shutdown stemmed from an impasse over Trump's demand for $5.7 billion in federal funds for a U.S.–Mexico border wall. 3) Loving to go behind backs: > Trump reportedly keeps finding a way to meet the Russian leader privately. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_Jerusalem_as_capital_of_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_J... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_State... [3] https://www.vox.com/2019/1/29/18202515/trump-putin-russia-g20-ft-note https://www.vox.com/2019/1/29/18202515/trump-putin-russia-g2...