You said "If it is just “baseball” then I think we can do better." So suppose for the moment there is no fancy philosophy and the number is just some vague, mes

You said "If it is just “baseball” then I think we can do better." So suppose for the moment there is no fancy philosophy and the number is just some vague, messy human sense of how many chances someone ought to get before we throw the book at them. What, concretely, is your better proposal?