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AFAIK, none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale even remotely close to Tesla. And Rivian isn't even in a consideration until th

AFAIK, none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale even remotely close to Tesla. And Rivian isn't even in a consideration until they're actually profitable. If anything, I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet.

seadan83 3y ago
I wanted to check your statement: "none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale" It's really tough to find numbers of cars produced! I don't think they make those numbers public even. All the numbers I could find were units sold. Units sold should be a proxy of unit produced to some extent (so perhaps this is fair to look at). It appears these are the numbers [1] for 2023 (as of 2023 Q3) for global sales of battery-electric vehicles: Tesla: 888,879 and 21.7% share (vs. 19%) BYD Group: 615,064 and 15% share (vs. 11%) Volkswagen Group: 311,359 and 7.6% share (vs. 7.3%) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 308,899 and 7.5% share (vs. 10.8%) Geely-Volvo: 236,847 and 5.8% share Volkswagan I consider to be a traditional automaker. BYD was founded in 1995, I'm not sure if that is considered traditional yet. VW being at one third and BYD being at 80% is certainly a difference, but not a "any kind of scale" difference. VW and BYD are producing at scale. > I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet. Indeed, particularly in China and growingly in European markets. This other resource states that BYD (BEV) sales have surpassed Tesla in Q4 2023 [2]. The same resource has some interesting notes about planned production expansions [1] https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-2023h1/ https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-202... [2] https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-ev-rivals/ https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-...
- _ea1k 3y ago
  I'm not sure where you got the numbers for the others, but Tesla's are easy to find: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-... 1.8M for 2023. Noone outside of China is particularly close.
  - seadan83 3y ago
    Numbers are sales and should be found in the citation. Do you have numbers for production of other companies? I'm probably most interest in VW. It would be surprising to me if sales represented sales of old inventory, but that could be the case. I would more suppose that sales are for more recently produced inventory. Thus while 80% the sales of tesla does not mean 80% production, but seems like 50% is plausible. I would consider 50% of 1.8M to be producing at scale. Eager to see what the numbers are. It would be wildly interesting if sales were somewhat close but production was not

seadan83 3y ago

I wanted to check your statement: "none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale" It's really tough to find numbers of cars produced! I don't think they make those numbers public even. All the numbers I could find were units sold. Units sold should be a proxy of unit produced to some extent (so perhaps this is fair to look at). It appears these are the numbers [1] for 2023 (as of 2023 Q3) for global sales of battery-electric vehicles: Tesla: 888,879 and 21.7% share (vs. 19%) BYD Group: 615,064 and 15% share (vs. 11%) Volkswagen Group: 311,359 and 7.6% share (vs. 7.3%) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 308,899 and 7.5% share (vs. 10.8%) Geely-Volvo: 236,847 and 5.8% share Volkswagan I consider to be a traditional automaker. BYD was founded in 1995, I'm not sure if that is considered traditional yet. VW being at one third and BYD being at 80% is certainly a difference, but not a "any kind of scale" difference. VW and BYD are producing at scale. > I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet. Indeed, particularly in China and growingly in European markets. This other resource states that BYD (BEV) sales have surpassed Tesla in Q4 2023 [2]. The same resource has some interesting notes about planned production expansions [1] https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-2023h1/ https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-202... [2] https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-ev-rivals/ https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-...

_ea1k 3y ago
I'm not sure where you got the numbers for the others, but Tesla's are easy to find: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-... 1.8M for 2023. Noone outside of China is particularly close.
- seadan83 3y ago
  Numbers are sales and should be found in the citation. Do you have numbers for production of other companies? I'm probably most interest in VW. It would be surprising to me if sales represented sales of old inventory, but that could be the case. I would more suppose that sales are for more recently produced inventory. Thus while 80% the sales of tesla does not mean 80% production, but seems like 50% is plausible. I would consider 50% of 1.8M to be producing at scale. Eager to see what the numbers are. It would be wildly interesting if sales were somewhat close but production was not