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Hmm. This is a bit of a silly comparison, but Tesla will sell a Megapack with 1.9MW, 3.9MWh for about $2M, “ready to install”. Signature Solar has an 18kW, 61

by amluto 3y ago

Hmm. This is a bit of a silly comparison, but Tesla will sell a Megapack with 1.9MW, 3.9MWh for about $2M, “ready to install”. Signature Solar has an 18kW, 61.44kWh battery plus inverter setup for about $22k. If you could buy 64 of these, you get just over 3.9MWh and 1.15MW for about $1.4M. Tesla’s system presumably operates at a nicer 480V and is intended to scale larger, but the cost isn’t amazing if you pretend this is apples to apples.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Utilities and energy developers buy solutions, not parts. Megapack + Autobidder is turnkey. Also, cost sensitive buyers are not a great cohort to market to; market to folks with capital to spend and who understand the value prop. Let someone else chase garbage margins. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. https://electrek.co/2023/09/15/tesla-autobidder-product-330-million-energy-investors/ https://electrek.co/2023/09/15/tesla-autobidder-product-330-... ("Tesla’s little-known Autobidder product has already made over $330 million for energy investors")
- amluto 3y ago
  > Also, cost sensitive buyers are not a great cohort to market to … > ("Tesla’s little-known Autobidder product has already made over $330 million for energy investors") A lot of investors looking for returns would love to save 30-40%. I also wonder whether Autobidder, which is hosted on Tesla’s cloud, would actually be very exciting for grid operators who value reliability and things like black start. Anyway, my real point is that I’m comparing apples to oranges, but Tesla’s value proposition in the energy sector doesn’t look unassailable to me. If I worked at a company like EG4, I would seriously consider trying to compete.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    When real competition presents itself, the discussion will be material. Engineering culture is hard to cultivate, no utility is going to write an autobidder replacement. Utilities can barely do anything besides put RFPs out for generation, maintain their distribution networks, and operating their IT systems for billing and grid management. Some even fail at that (US PG&E). This is like saying "all of these slow moving, conservative, entrenched, low paying organizations can compete with software companies if they just tried." And if horses could sing. Engas has terrible enterprise fundamentals to try to create an engineering culture ($$$) to obtain market leverage [1]. TLDR Culture and resources matter to innovate and deliver. The stars must align. [1] https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/FRA:EG4/summary https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/FRA:EG4/summary
    - amluto 3y ago
      I forgot to include the link to the system I was referring to: https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-18kpv-hybrid-inverter-system-bundle-61-44kwh-eg4-lithium-powerwall/ https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-18kpv-hybrid-inverter-system-... Amusingly, it’s from EG4, and they seem to be capable of innovation. But it’s not the same EG4 :)

by amluto 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Utilities and energy developers buy solutions, not parts. Megapack + Autobidder is turnkey. Also, cost sensitive buyers are not a great cohort to market to; market to folks with capital to spend and who understand the value prop. Let someone else chase garbage margins. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. https://electrek.co/2023/09/15/tesla-autobidder-product-330-million-energy-investors/ https://electrek.co/2023/09/15/tesla-autobidder-product-330-... ("Tesla’s little-known Autobidder product has already made over $330 million for energy investors")

amluto 3y ago
> Also, cost sensitive buyers are not a great cohort to market to … > ("Tesla’s little-known Autobidder product has already made over $330 million for energy investors") A lot of investors looking for returns would love to save 30-40%. I also wonder whether Autobidder, which is hosted on Tesla’s cloud, would actually be very exciting for grid operators who value reliability and things like black start. Anyway, my real point is that I’m comparing apples to oranges, but Tesla’s value proposition in the energy sector doesn’t look unassailable to me. If I worked at a company like EG4, I would seriously consider trying to compete.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  When real competition presents itself, the discussion will be material. Engineering culture is hard to cultivate, no utility is going to write an autobidder replacement. Utilities can barely do anything besides put RFPs out for generation, maintain their distribution networks, and operating their IT systems for billing and grid management. Some even fail at that (US PG&E). This is like saying "all of these slow moving, conservative, entrenched, low paying organizations can compete with software companies if they just tried." And if horses could sing. Engas has terrible enterprise fundamentals to try to create an engineering culture ($$$) to obtain market leverage [1]. TLDR Culture and resources matter to innovate and deliver. The stars must align. [1] https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/FRA:EG4/summary https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/FRA:EG4/summary
  - amluto 3y ago
    I forgot to include the link to the system I was referring to: https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-18kpv-hybrid-inverter-system-bundle-61-44kwh-eg4-lithium-powerwall/ https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-18kpv-hybrid-inverter-system-... Amusingly, it’s from EG4, and they seem to be capable of innovation. But it’s not the same EG4 :)