4 ms·
Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard reality of the S curve at some p
by jandrese 3y ago
Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard reality of the S curve at some point. But Tesla could lose a massive amount of valuation and still be overpriced, especially compared to other large car companies like GM, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, and BYD.
The only thing saving Tesla from being absolutely clobbered in the market today, at least in the US, is the competitors doing some baffling and outright dumb things with their own EVs. Like Toyota announcing that they think EVs are a fad and aren't worth pursuing. Or GM ditching its only EV that actually sells for some vague promise of a car that is at least 2 years away.
I also think the lower numbers for last year are due to dumping tons of money into a truck platform that seems unlikely to be a good seller. I'm expecting that once you factor in all of the R&D costs the Cybertruck will be a net negative for Tesla with poor sales and low (for Tesla) margins.
- b33j0r 3y agoThey oversold the Cybertruck for how long it took and what it ended up being/costing. The market for it was maybe irrationally exuberant a few years ago, but a lot of that evaporated just from consumer ADHD and years of examples of new tech ideas with more options. (Speaking of the ADHD customers, I guess I can get $100 back?)
- ethbr1 3y agoCurious how much of the Cybertruck R&D will end up getting repurposed into an F-150 / Silverado competitor. Which is a rather large (and profitable) market. Given that's the exact same playbook the company was founded on. Build and advertise halo project. Use halo margins to build mass-market model at competitive scale. GOTO 10
- coliveira 3y agoTesla is lucky in the US, but in several parts of the world BYD is beating them hard. BYD is selling the most units, and they are not even allowed to compete in the USA.
- beaned 3y agoMore Android phones sell than Apple, but I think most HN-ers would be hard-pressed to claim that Google is definitively the bigger, better, or more successful company overall.
- rtsil 3y agoGoogle doesn't make Android phones beyond the niche Pixels. If they did, there would be a solid argument that they'd be the most successful phone company, because they'd own 80% of the market share.
- beaned 3y agoTrue in a way, but Google certainly benefits from having their OS on the majority of the world's smartphones. A more apt comparison might be Microsoft, who has roughly the same market cap as Apple, while having their operating system be on so many more computers. They sell their OS, not give it away (like Android) so maybe more accurate? But they don't have the quality, mindshare, or respect that most HN-ers give Apple, so in terms of success it doesn't appear to be just units shipped that matters most.
- resolutebat 3y agoHaving driven both a Tesla Model 3 and a BYD Atto 3 (their best seller outside China), the early Apple vs early Android comparison is apt. BYD gets the job done and thanks to low prices may beat Tesla on volume, but the overall experience is quite janky. Those who can afford it will get a Tesla, and that's why Tesla will continue to capture a lot more margin.
- thorncorona 3y agoTesla still is janky though? The auto windshield wipers straight up don’t work.
- bradfox2 3y ago
- epolanski 3y agoI think Toyota is right waiting, everyone but Tesla is really losing huge amounts of money chasing a market that does not exist yet.