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That gross margin is coming down as competition ramps up. They have two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries. That doesn’t even include Rivian’s che

by lvl102 3y ago

That gross margin is coming down as competition ramps up. They have two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries. That doesn’t even include Rivian’s cheaper competition model which they will reveal in March. They have no FSD. They have no AI. They have no “robots”. All vaporwares. Doesn’t help public opinion of Elon Musk and Tesla changed dramatically in the past 24 months. Progressives rather drive ICE than a Tesla.

B1FF_PSUVM 3y ago
> two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries. "Or the horse may learn to sing."
- mixmastamyk 3y ago
  That is, of course, unless the horse, is the famous Mr. Ed.
jackmott 3y ago
[dead]
jdminhbg 3y ago
> Rivian’s cheaper competition model which they will reveal in March You'd be lucky to get a currently-available Rivian in 2025 if you ordered now, how many years until you realistically could take delivery of this new Rivian model? Edit: I stand corrected on current availability, see below. Still think it will be years until you will get a new, cheaper model that hasn't been announced yet.
- songeater 3y ago
  that's not true. R1S available in 1-2 weeks at the shop: https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1T https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1T
- mrcwinn 3y ago
  That simply isn't true. It's quick to get an R1S or R1T. My delivery advisor said a custom configuration in the Boise area could pop up in as little as a couple weeks.
sakopov 3y ago
AFAIK, none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale even remotely close to Tesla. And Rivian isn't even in a consideration until they're actually profitable. If anything, I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet.
- seadan83 3y ago
  I wanted to check your statement: "none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale" It's really tough to find numbers of cars produced! I don't think they make those numbers public even. All the numbers I could find were units sold. Units sold should be a proxy of unit produced to some extent (so perhaps this is fair to look at). It appears these are the numbers [1] for 2023 (as of 2023 Q3) for global sales of battery-electric vehicles: Tesla: 888,879 and 21.7% share (vs. 19%) BYD Group: 615,064 and 15% share (vs. 11%) Volkswagen Group: 311,359 and 7.6% share (vs. 7.3%) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 308,899 and 7.5% share (vs. 10.8%) Geely-Volvo: 236,847 and 5.8% share Volkswagan I consider to be a traditional automaker. BYD was founded in 1995, I'm not sure if that is considered traditional yet. VW being at one third and BYD being at 80% is certainly a difference, but not a "any kind of scale" difference. VW and BYD are producing at scale. > I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet. Indeed, particularly in China and growingly in European markets. This other resource states that BYD (BEV) sales have surpassed Tesla in Q4 2023 [2]. The same resource has some interesting notes about planned production expansions [1] https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-2023h1/ https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-202... [2] https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-ev-rivals/ https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-...
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    I'm not sure where you got the numbers for the others, but Tesla's are easy to find: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-... 1.8M for 2023. Noone outside of China is particularly close.

by lvl102 3y ago

B1FF_PSUVM 3y ago

> two more years before Toyota rolls out new batteries. "Or the horse may learn to sing."

mixmastamyk 3y ago
That is, of course, unless the horse, is the famous Mr. Ed.

jackmott 3y ago

[dead]

jdminhbg 3y ago

> Rivian’s cheaper competition model which they will reveal in March You'd be lucky to get a currently-available Rivian in 2025 if you ordered now, how many years until you realistically could take delivery of this new Rivian model? Edit: I stand corrected on current availability, see below. Still think it will be years until you will get a new, cheaper model that hasn't been announced yet.

songeater 3y ago
that's not true. R1S available in 1-2 weeks at the shop: https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1T https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1T
mrcwinn 3y ago
That simply isn't true. It's quick to get an R1S or R1T. My delivery advisor said a custom configuration in the Boise area could pop up in as little as a couple weeks.

sakopov 3y ago

AFAIK, none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale even remotely close to Tesla. And Rivian isn't even in a consideration until they're actually profitable. If anything, I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet.

seadan83 3y ago
I wanted to check your statement: "none of the traditional automakers are producing EVs at any kind of scale" It's really tough to find numbers of cars produced! I don't think they make those numbers public even. All the numbers I could find were units sold. Units sold should be a proxy of unit produced to some extent (so perhaps this is fair to look at). It appears these are the numbers [1] for 2023 (as of 2023 Q3) for global sales of battery-electric vehicles: Tesla: 888,879 and 21.7% share (vs. 19%) BYD Group: 615,064 and 15% share (vs. 11%) Volkswagen Group: 311,359 and 7.6% share (vs. 7.3%) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 308,899 and 7.5% share (vs. 10.8%) Geely-Volvo: 236,847 and 5.8% share Volkswagan I consider to be a traditional automaker. BYD was founded in 1995, I'm not sure if that is considered traditional yet. VW being at one third and BYD being at 80% is certainly a difference, but not a "any kind of scale" difference. VW and BYD are producing at scale. > I'd say BYD is more of a competition than either Toyota or Rivian and they're not even in the US market yet. Indeed, particularly in China and growingly in European markets. This other resource states that BYD (BEV) sales have surpassed Tesla in Q4 2023 [2]. The same resource has some interesting notes about planned production expansions [1] https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-2023h1/ https://insideevs.com/news/680475/world-top-ev-oem-sales-202... [2] https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-ev-rivals/ https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-...
- _ea1k 3y ago
  I'm not sure where you got the numbers for the others, but Tesla's are easy to find: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-... 1.8M for 2023. Noone outside of China is particularly close.