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Unsurprisingly to anyone who understands how tough the auto industry is, Tesla's long term growth expectations were not realistic. On the other hand having the

Unsurprisingly to anyone who understands how tough the auto industry is, Tesla's long term growth expectations were not realistic. On the other hand having the best selling vehicle on the planet is a gargantuan achievement Tesla should be proud of. Curious about its future beyond cars. Musk described Tesla like 15 startups under one company.

mgiannopoulos 3y ago
Tesla Energy generated a record $6B in revenue in 2023, up 54% YoY. So, that’s something to look at.
- alphabettsy 3y ago
  It might be the strongest growth prospect going forward. Other EVs using their chargers and commercial customers using their power solutions.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Tesla's end game is infrastructure, not cars.
mgiannopoulos 3y ago
Also, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%. It marks the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from 16.3% in the Sep-23.
- 7e 3y ago
  From the statement, "Total GAAP gross margin" is still declining on a quarterly basis, to 17.6%. Your statement is also true because regulatory credit revenue is also down QoQ.
nine_zeros 3y ago
Infinite growth is a fantasy. But Tesla certainly pushed a lethargic market to the future. An epic company at the whims of the quarterly analyst.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
They sold cars to stoke demand for batteries [1] and prove the world could move to EVs. They used battery manufacturing to scale up to build and sell utility scale storage [2]. Nimble companies should always be prepared to pivot and maximize opportunities based on core competencies if they are to survive (Kodak and Xerox are examples of not doing this). If their EV business becomes second to legacy auto, but the org keeps expanding power controls and storage, is that a loss? They already forced every other automaker to go electric. The global energy market is somewhat larger than the light vehicle market, and batteries will be required to phase out every last fossil generator (not for energy arbitrage primarily, but for grid stability). The product is riding the global energy transition. (early Tesla investor, no current exposure) [1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... [2] https://www.tesla.com/megafactory https://www.tesla.com/megafactory
- dragontamer 3y ago
  Except Panasonic owns the cell-manufacturing portion of the Nevada Gigafactory. And Panasonic can sell those cells to anyone.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    But they don’t, because Tesla’s demand is voracious and they are a proven partner. Supply chain relationships matter.
    - dragontamer 3y ago
      But Tesla has constantly sold these cells as "their cells", constantly misleading (almost lying) to the public like these are a significant moat or technology that's exclusive to Tesla. Panasonic also has very tight relationships with Toyota, for example. There's nothing about the Panasonic/Tesla relationship that's really a "moat". ---------- If all your competitors need is just to establish a relationship with Panasonic to get their technology, that's a very different thing than like holding a patent or other "true moat".
golemiprague 3y ago
[dead]
jandrese 3y ago
Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard reality of the S curve at some point. But Tesla could lose a massive amount of valuation and still be overpriced, especially compared to other large car companies like GM, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, and BYD. The only thing saving Tesla from being absolutely clobbered in the market today, at least in the US, is the competitors doing some baffling and outright dumb things with their own EVs. Like Toyota announcing that they think EVs are a fad and aren't worth pursuing. Or GM ditching its only EV that actually sells for some vague promise of a car that is at least 2 years away. I also think the lower numbers for last year are due to dumping tons of money into a truck platform that seems unlikely to be a good seller. I'm expecting that once you factor in all of the R&D costs the Cybertruck will be a net negative for Tesla with poor sales and low (for Tesla) margins.
- b33j0r 3y ago
  They oversold the Cybertruck for how long it took and what it ended up being/costing. The market for it was maybe irrationally exuberant a few years ago, but a lot of that evaporated just from consumer ADHD and years of examples of new tech ideas with more options. (Speaking of the ADHD customers, I guess I can get $100 back?)
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    Curious how much of the Cybertruck R&D will end up getting repurposed into an F-150 / Silverado competitor. Which is a rather large (and profitable) market. Given that's the exact same playbook the company was founded on. Build and advertise halo project. Use halo margins to build mass-market model at competitive scale. GOTO 10
- coliveira 3y ago
  Tesla is lucky in the US, but in several parts of the world BYD is beating them hard. BYD is selling the most units, and they are not even allowed to compete in the USA.
  - 3y ago
redwall_hp 3y ago
The Corolla easily sold more units worldwide than any Tesla vehicle. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes... I don't have numbers handy, but I suspect the bestselling vehicle globally is also probably a moped, potentially the Honda supercub by its prior sales velocity...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 3y ago
  What a bad take. That "Corolla" is not a car/model but a whole category that combines many body types such as a sedan, a wagon, a hatchback and a crossover model (Corolla + Levin + Allion + Lingshang + Fenglanda + etc). Tesla could create two nameplate: "Cyber" for pickups and "Model" for other vehicles (S+X+3+Y) and call it a day too.

mgiannopoulos 3y ago

Tesla Energy generated a record $6B in revenue in 2023, up 54% YoY. So, that’s something to look at.

alphabettsy 3y ago
It might be the strongest growth prospect going forward. Other EVs using their chargers and commercial customers using their power solutions.
bdcravens 3y ago
Tesla's end game is infrastructure, not cars.

mgiannopoulos 3y ago

Also, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%. It marks the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from 16.3% in the Sep-23.

7e 3y ago
From the statement, "Total GAAP gross margin" is still declining on a quarterly basis, to 17.6%. Your statement is also true because regulatory credit revenue is also down QoQ.

nine_zeros 3y ago

Infinite growth is a fantasy. But Tesla certainly pushed a lethargic market to the future. An epic company at the whims of the quarterly analyst.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

They sold cars to stoke demand for batteries [1] and prove the world could move to EVs. They used battery manufacturing to scale up to build and sell utility scale storage [2]. Nimble companies should always be prepared to pivot and maximize opportunities based on core competencies if they are to survive (Kodak and Xerox are examples of not doing this). If their EV business becomes second to legacy auto, but the org keeps expanding power controls and storage, is that a loss? They already forced every other automaker to go electric. The global energy market is somewhat larger than the light vehicle market, and batteries will be required to phase out every last fossil generator (not for energy arbitrage primarily, but for grid stability). The product is riding the global energy transition. (early Tesla investor, no current exposure) [1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... [2] https://www.tesla.com/megafactory https://www.tesla.com/megafactory

dragontamer 3y ago
Except Panasonic owns the cell-manufacturing portion of the Nevada Gigafactory. And Panasonic can sell those cells to anyone.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  But they don’t, because Tesla’s demand is voracious and they are a proven partner. Supply chain relationships matter.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    But Tesla has constantly sold these cells as "their cells", constantly misleading (almost lying) to the public like these are a significant moat or technology that's exclusive to Tesla. Panasonic also has very tight relationships with Toyota, for example. There's nothing about the Panasonic/Tesla relationship that's really a "moat". ---------- If all your competitors need is just to establish a relationship with Panasonic to get their technology, that's a very different thing than like holding a patent or other "true moat".

golemiprague 3y ago

[dead]

jandrese 3y ago

Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard reality of the S curve at some point. But Tesla could lose a massive amount of valuation and still be overpriced, especially compared to other large car companies like GM, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, and BYD. The only thing saving Tesla from being absolutely clobbered in the market today, at least in the US, is the competitors doing some baffling and outright dumb things with their own EVs. Like Toyota announcing that they think EVs are a fad and aren't worth pursuing. Or GM ditching its only EV that actually sells for some vague promise of a car that is at least 2 years away. I also think the lower numbers for last year are due to dumping tons of money into a truck platform that seems unlikely to be a good seller. I'm expecting that once you factor in all of the R&D costs the Cybertruck will be a net negative for Tesla with poor sales and low (for Tesla) margins.

b33j0r 3y ago
They oversold the Cybertruck for how long it took and what it ended up being/costing. The market for it was maybe irrationally exuberant a few years ago, but a lot of that evaporated just from consumer ADHD and years of examples of new tech ideas with more options. (Speaking of the ADHD customers, I guess I can get $100 back?)
- ethbr1 3y ago
  Curious how much of the Cybertruck R&D will end up getting repurposed into an F-150 / Silverado competitor. Which is a rather large (and profitable) market. Given that's the exact same playbook the company was founded on. Build and advertise halo project. Use halo margins to build mass-market model at competitive scale. GOTO 10
coliveira 3y ago
Tesla is lucky in the US, but in several parts of the world BYD is beating them hard. BYD is selling the most units, and they are not even allowed to compete in the USA.
- 3y ago

redwall_hp 3y ago

The Corolla easily sold more units worldwide than any Tesla vehicle. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes... I don't have numbers handy, but I suspect the bestselling vehicle globally is also probably a moped, potentially the Honda supercub by its prior sales velocity...

rcMgD2BwE72F 3y ago
What a bad take. That "Corolla" is not a car/model but a whole category that combines many body types such as a sedan, a wagon, a hatchback and a crossover model (Corolla + Levin + Allion + Lingshang + Fenglanda + etc). Tesla could create two nameplate: "Cyber" for pickups and "Model" for other vehicles (S+X+3+Y) and call it a day too.