4 ms·
You really do have an advantage by going for 2 first, and it's because you have gained information by doing so. The possible choices you can make for 2 PATs ar
by thehappypm 3y ago
You really do have an advantage by going for 2 first, and it's because you have gained information by doing so.
The possible choices you can make for 2 PATs are:
Kick, Kick
Kick, Attempt
Attempt, Attempt
Attempt, Kick
If you kick first, let's assume kicking is 100% successful, now your choices are:
Kick made => Attempt
Kick made => Kick again
These are both rational choices; attempting gives you a 50/50 shot to win, and kicking again sends you to OT with a 50/50 chance.
Now let's look at if you attempt first.
Attempt made => Kick
Attempt made => Attempt again (irrational!)
Attempt missed => Kick (irrational!)
Attempt missed => Attempt again
Some of these are irrational! If you made the conversion, just kick it to win by 1! This information gain helps you eliminate irrational choices, whereas if you kick first, no choices are eliminated for you.