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I found this to be a fascinating article, and the problem is illustrative of problems in our society on a number of levels. The biggest problem is of course, s

I found this to be a fascinating article, and the problem is illustrative of problems in our society on a number of levels. The biggest problem is of course, societal. One anecdote from an anti-theft taskforce in the article showed that less than 5% of the thefts were prepretrated by organized groups, and the other 95% were from "passers-by or unhoused people living near the tracks in R.V.s or makeshift structures". People on the margins of society, who see an opportunity to make some money. Ideally, we'd fix the problem of unhoused people on the margins of society and we'd eliminate the vast majority of thefts like this. But of course, that's a much harder problem to solve. Much easier, then, to respond with bigger locks, and more security cameras, and GPS trackers and more security guards in vulnerable hotspots. While those measures might work (to an extent) to solve the immediate problem, they don't work to make the society that I'd like to live in. I'd much rather live in a more equitable society that works to eliminate homelessness, and the conditions that lead to this type of theft, then one that just prevents it with punatitive measures and thorough enforcement.

programjames 3y ago
Someone else said it was 5% of arrests, not thefts. If so, I would expect organized groups to be less likely to get caught, and to steal much more in each robbery.
- justsomehnguy 3y ago
  Yep, just have a mole at the rail yard to report where the sweetest things are => come quick, take exactly you need, get out.
- happytiger 3y ago
  Folks living in a tent aren’t typically the ones getting caught with a warehouse and 18m or 30M in stolen goods, which has happened in LA and Chicago respectively. These are organized crime rings running fencing operations at heart. The same thing is happening in agriculture, though it’s really under reported.
m463 3y ago
I wodner if that is possible. It seems sort of a boil-the-ocean technique though. Is what you want really to make the cargo less valuable in comparison to the wealth of the people near its route? I suspect that even with full employment, there will still be theft. I think even in really decent societies like japan, there are still homeless people, and also the yakuza.
Reubend 3y ago
> Ideally, we'd fix the problem of unhoused people on the margins of society and we'd eliminate the vast majority of thefts like this. I don't see any evidence of this. The article did point out that only 5% of the arrests were organized criminals, but I would expect the organized ones to do more than their fair share of total thefts. I'd also expect them to get arrested less often than their amateur counterparts. But more importantly, your proposal assumes that eliminating poverty would eliminate crime. That makes intuitive sense, but I don't think it's true. I've heard that many of the package thieves in my neighborhood are middle class people who just steal opportunistically.
- Spivak 3y ago
  I mean I don't steal because I don't have to, not because of some moral drive to care one iota about the profits of corporations. No one is asking poverty reduction to eliminate crime but it's on the theory that for most people above a certain life comfort you have more to lose than gain by petty theft and you don't need to bother. I think "give people something to lose" is an underused and underrated crime deterrent.
  - Kalium 3y ago
    Most people already have something to lose. Giving them the fear of losing it has more to do with enforcement.
    - makeitshine 3y ago
      Not necessarily. There are places where crime is low and so is police presence, like Taipei or Tokyo. It's part of culture which is actually adhered to by most.
      - lmm 3y ago
        What are you talking about? There's a staffed police box in every neighbourhood in Tokyo, and even more police in the "dangerous" areas.
coliveira 3y ago
Yes, people don't understand that the increase in homelessness will certainly also increase dramatically the amount of theft. Middle class people with jobs and homes don't want to jeopardize their lifestyle by committing petty theft. People at the margins of society, especially homeless, don't have much more to lose, so this kind of behavior becomes the norm.
thegrimmest 3y ago
[flagged]
- lolc 3y ago
  Do you have perchance the incarceration rates of Japan and the U.S. handy?
  - itsyaboi 3y ago
    [flagged]
- jjeaff 3y ago
  Causation is not correlation. Prison in the US is pretty awful, so I wouldn't expect "harsh treatment" to be a reason that crime is low. Additionally, Japanese recidivism isn't particularly low (50%). Japan also has more programs to alleviate extreme poverty as well as an aging population. I would expect those have a stronger effect.
  - thegrimmest 3y ago
    Japan has been a peaceful place throughout its demographic changes. It's not about being "awful" (inflicting maximum misery) but about effectively correcting problem behaviours. This actually requires a high degree of discipline and order among prison staff, not unlike raising children. Life in Japanese prison is highly regimented, expectations of correct behaviour are high, and inmates are not allowed to freely interact and form a prison culture. This is in contrast to the US, where prison is effectively crime university. There are also effective post-correctional structures, eg. hiring discrimination against convicts isn't legal. I'm arguing that Japan is a model of penal efficiency, getting a lot more bang for penal system buck, not that their system is most effective in absolute terms. Edit: Japan spends ~14 USD per prisoner per day[1] and the US spends ~110 USD[2]. 1. https://www.moj.go.jp/content/001409459.pdf https://www.moj.go.jp/content/001409459.pdf 2. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/09/22/2023-20585/annual-determination-of-average-cost-of-incarceration-fee-coif https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/09/22/2023-20...
- 3y ago
Georgelemental 3y ago
A more equitable society is a society in which people in precarious financial and social situations are free to work to improve their lot, without fear that lawbreakers will destroy all they have built. Enforcing the law and holding criminals accountable is a prerequisite to creating economic and social opportunity. El Salvador's recent rebirth is a perfect demonstration of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KU-Tkh4yoQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KU-Tkh4yoQ
- red1reaper 3y ago
  The problem is that your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot. That is simply not true,if you hold that view, you are honestly just wrong and I can't do anything about it.
  - Georgelemental 3y ago
    It's not just a theory, it's an empirical observation—as El Salvador demonstrates.
  - DiggyJohnson 3y ago
    Can you explain what you mean by: > your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot It's not obvious to me at all that a person needs to be at "100%" to improve their lot (and avoid criminality). I would never get out of bed if that was the case.

programjames 3y ago

Someone else said it was 5% of arrests, not thefts. If so, I would expect organized groups to be less likely to get caught, and to steal much more in each robbery.

justsomehnguy 3y ago
Yep, just have a mole at the rail yard to report where the sweetest things are => come quick, take exactly you need, get out.
happytiger 3y ago
Folks living in a tent aren’t typically the ones getting caught with a warehouse and 18m or 30M in stolen goods, which has happened in LA and Chicago respectively. These are organized crime rings running fencing operations at heart. The same thing is happening in agriculture, though it’s really under reported.

m463 3y ago

I wodner if that is possible. It seems sort of a boil-the-ocean technique though. Is what you want really to make the cargo less valuable in comparison to the wealth of the people near its route? I suspect that even with full employment, there will still be theft. I think even in really decent societies like japan, there are still homeless people, and also the yakuza.

Reubend 3y ago

> Ideally, we'd fix the problem of unhoused people on the margins of society and we'd eliminate the vast majority of thefts like this. I don't see any evidence of this. The article did point out that only 5% of the arrests were organized criminals, but I would expect the organized ones to do more than their fair share of total thefts. I'd also expect them to get arrested less often than their amateur counterparts. But more importantly, your proposal assumes that eliminating poverty would eliminate crime. That makes intuitive sense, but I don't think it's true. I've heard that many of the package thieves in my neighborhood are middle class people who just steal opportunistically.

Spivak 3y ago
I mean I don't steal because I don't have to, not because of some moral drive to care one iota about the profits of corporations. No one is asking poverty reduction to eliminate crime but it's on the theory that for most people above a certain life comfort you have more to lose than gain by petty theft and you don't need to bother. I think "give people something to lose" is an underused and underrated crime deterrent.
- Kalium 3y ago
  Most people already have something to lose. Giving them the fear of losing it has more to do with enforcement.
  - makeitshine 3y ago
    Not necessarily. There are places where crime is low and so is police presence, like Taipei or Tokyo. It's part of culture which is actually adhered to by most.
    - lmm 3y ago
      What are you talking about? There's a staffed police box in every neighbourhood in Tokyo, and even more police in the "dangerous" areas.

coliveira 3y ago

Yes, people don't understand that the increase in homelessness will certainly also increase dramatically the amount of theft. Middle class people with jobs and homes don't want to jeopardize their lifestyle by committing petty theft. People at the margins of society, especially homeless, don't have much more to lose, so this kind of behavior becomes the norm.

thegrimmest 3y ago

[flagged]

lolc 3y ago
Do you have perchance the incarceration rates of Japan and the U.S. handy?
- itsyaboi 3y ago
  [flagged]
jjeaff 3y ago
Causation is not correlation. Prison in the US is pretty awful, so I wouldn't expect "harsh treatment" to be a reason that crime is low. Additionally, Japanese recidivism isn't particularly low (50%). Japan also has more programs to alleviate extreme poverty as well as an aging population. I would expect those have a stronger effect.
- thegrimmest 3y ago
  Japan has been a peaceful place throughout its demographic changes. It's not about being "awful" (inflicting maximum misery) but about effectively correcting problem behaviours. This actually requires a high degree of discipline and order among prison staff, not unlike raising children. Life in Japanese prison is highly regimented, expectations of correct behaviour are high, and inmates are not allowed to freely interact and form a prison culture. This is in contrast to the US, where prison is effectively crime university. There are also effective post-correctional structures, eg. hiring discrimination against convicts isn't legal. I'm arguing that Japan is a model of penal efficiency, getting a lot more bang for penal system buck, not that their system is most effective in absolute terms. Edit: Japan spends ~14 USD per prisoner per day[1] and the US spends ~110 USD[2]. 1. https://www.moj.go.jp/content/001409459.pdf https://www.moj.go.jp/content/001409459.pdf 2. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/09/22/2023-20585/annual-determination-of-average-cost-of-incarceration-fee-coif https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/09/22/2023-20...
3y ago

Georgelemental 3y ago

A more equitable society is a society in which people in precarious financial and social situations are free to work to improve their lot, without fear that lawbreakers will destroy all they have built. Enforcing the law and holding criminals accountable is a prerequisite to creating economic and social opportunity. El Salvador's recent rebirth is a perfect demonstration of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KU-Tkh4yoQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KU-Tkh4yoQ

red1reaper 3y ago
The problem is that your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot. That is simply not true,if you hold that view, you are honestly just wrong and I can't do anything about it.
- Georgelemental 3y ago
  It's not just a theory, it's an empirical observation—as El Salvador demonstrates.
- DiggyJohnson 3y ago
  Can you explain what you mean by: > your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot It's not obvious to me at all that a person needs to be at "100%" to improve their lot (and avoid criminality). I would never get out of bed if that was the case.