6 ms·

Most of it is much more opportunistic than that example. > "But over the course of the task force’s existence, which lasted nearly a year, only 34 of the rough

Most of it is much more opportunistic than that example. > "But over the course of the task force’s existence, which lasted nearly a year, only 34 of the roughly 700 people arrested or cited for stealing from trains were part of these organized crews. Many more were just passers-by or unhoused people living near the tracks in R.V.s or makeshift structures who just happened to pick up fallen boxes." It's just one datapoint, but under 5% of the thefts this specific taskforce identified were perpretrated by organized groups. Most were essentially opportunistic thefts by individuals on the margins of society.

spenczar5 3y ago
Careful, there: 5% of the people arrested or cited. That is not the same as 5% of the thefts (one would expect the professionals do more than their share of the thieving) or even 5% of the thieves (one might believe that pros are less likely to get caught).
- ysavir 3y ago
  It's also not representative of the quantity of stolen cargo. Even if it's 5% of thefts, that 5% could be responsible for 60% of stolen cargo.
  - dotancohen 3y ago
    This is such a great example of lying with statistics. I know that it was not deliberate, which is why the lie is so effective. Even the teller believes it to be true.
    - HenryBemis 3y ago
      > I know that it was not deliberate Although I never underestimate human stupidity or laziness for misrepresentation of numbers/statistics/etc, it's usually some poor SME that writes the report, and then the Manager sees the "60%", freaks out, asks the SME to rewrite making it softer, and thus the truth is (given a serious effort to be hidden). I've been writing audit, security, and other reports a big part of my life. I tend to write numbers in the form of "5 out of 100 X (5%) examined, regarding the Y process, failed due to..". It freaks out anyone who reads my reports, but, hey, they pay me for accuracy and truth. Once I send it (and it's 'untouched' on my Sent Items), they can do whatever they want with it, as long as they put THEIR names & signatures in the bottom if they change a single word (sorry for the cynicism but there exists no corporate hill that I want to die on) - also you never know when a regulator will come back 6.5 years later and ask about THAT job scheduler that was transferring £€$5bn per day between X-system and Y-system. I cannot recount the AMOUNT of times my report has 'softer' writing in the end, and it's their prerogative. But "it's not deliberate"????? No way in hell!!! Manager --> Director --> C-suite --> Audit Committee --> Regulator. EVERYONE will change a couple of words, and instead of a dumpster fire (Red) it will end up being Yellow.
    - Chris2048 3y ago
      Maybe there should be official guidelines for stats communication that require a certain level of legalise-like specify. No more "there is no evidence for.." of the sci world.
  - Chris2048 3y ago
    The phrase "who just happened to pick up fallen boxes" suggests the boxes had already left the train at that point? Not the same as entering the train.
    - pooper 3y ago
      This just sounds like the police not doing its job. Or rather doing busy work to avoid doing its job. Previously on reddit https://old.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/ree4ef/this_huge_bust_includes_a_row_of_1_bills_and_two/ https://old.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/ree4ef/this_huge_...
- RecycledEle 3y ago
  I expect members of organize gangs do want to not admit to being members of such gangs. I would expect to hear a slurred version of "I just wanted something and I saw a box. I'm homeless. I don't have a name. They never told me when I was born. I didn't grow up like you did."
dragonwriter 3y ago
> It's just one datapoint, but under 5% of the thefts this specific taskforce identified were perpretrated by organized groups. 5% of the people arrested, not 5% of the thefts. “Less sophisticated thieves are more likely to be arrested” isn’t a surprising result.
- pixl97 3y ago
  Yep, much harder to get caught if you have a team monitoring for police activity and a ready get away car and they know where to hit with the highest response times.
- gorlilla 3y ago
  It's still accurate in the sense of proximate cause. Each theft event is a singular event composed of one or possibly multiple items being stolen.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > It's still accurate in the sense of proximate cause Its not, though. > Each theft event is a singular event composed of one or possibly multiple items being stolen. Even if you ignore that the arrest rate likely isn't consistent between the two groups, that doesn't make the arrest proportion “accurate in the sense of oroxinate cause” unless you assume also that the organized vs. disorganized arrested parties are responsible for the same number of theft events per individual. All the proportion of individuals arrested in the theft ring vs. not actually tells you is the proportion if individuals areested. It doesn't tell you the proportion of “theft events” or the proportion of $ valie of theft or anything else.
londons_explore 3y ago
> who just happened to pick up fallen boxes I wonder if any of those 'fallen' boxes were deliberately dropped in an area covered by CCTV just to catch opportunistic thieves? It would certainly be a good way to catch one type of thief while entirely missing the biggest heists.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 3y ago
  If you pick up a box off the road, are you a thief?
  - sandworm101 3y ago
    Yes. The fact that property is unguarded doesn't render it free to any random person. You can legitimately safeguard something, such as moving it off the road, but once you open the box or take the box home, you are a thief. And if the box is sitting on railroad property, you are likely guilty of attempted theft as soon as you pick it up. Also trespassing.
    - pi-e-sigma 3y ago
      What you say is not true in the slightest. In a lot of the US jurisdictions you can keep what you found provided you report it to the authorities and nobody claims it in some time frame. In other cases you can take what you found if you found it on your land etc. Lots of various laws apply, depending where you live and what exactly you found. If it was likely to be intentionally left where you found it to be later picked up again, or if it was intentionally abandoned etc. You can even take legal ownership of land that you and the authorities know is not yours provided you use it long enough (adverse possession) and you think a random box left by the side of the road is somehow untouchable?
      - sandworm101 3y ago
        Not for amazon boxes that fall off trucks.
lupusreal 3y ago
> who just happened to pick up fallen boxes. Anybody who believes this is being foolish. Packages don't just "fall off" of boxcars. Those cars aren't open topped, the cardboard packages would be ruined by the weather if they were. The only way for a package to fall off a train is if somebody deliberately breaks into the train cars with those packages, and probably starts throwing the packages off the train. The fact that they couldn't charge most people with that only highlights the inadequacy of their enforcement.
usrusr 3y ago
They catch the vultures who arrive at the scene when the lions who did the hunting are gone. Perhaps some of what is happening is truly done by opportunistic amateurs, but the observation voted would also be perfectly consistent with a ground truth where every single case was done by an organized group.
infecto 3y ago
Wrong interpretation. Others already pointed out the volume of items stolen but it I don't think that statistic points out who perpetrated the original crime. It makes sense, only a handful of individuals would be the ones break the train, anyone else around would certainly jump in the action.
rdtsc 3y ago
> were part of these organized groups I could also see that people performing the crime might be unhoused, what are they going to do with 20 blenders they just stole? They will go to some organized group and sell the loot for some cash. So on paper it doesn’t appear organized in practice it’s sort of is. If there is no one buying the 20 blenders, it’s not worth bothering jumping on a train for them.

spenczar5 3y ago

Careful, there: 5% of the people arrested or cited. That is not the same as 5% of the thefts (one would expect the professionals do more than their share of the thieving) or even 5% of the thieves (one might believe that pros are less likely to get caught).

ysavir 3y ago
It's also not representative of the quantity of stolen cargo. Even if it's 5% of thefts, that 5% could be responsible for 60% of stolen cargo.
- dotancohen 3y ago
  This is such a great example of lying with statistics. I know that it was not deliberate, which is why the lie is so effective. Even the teller believes it to be true.
  - HenryBemis 3y ago
    > I know that it was not deliberate Although I never underestimate human stupidity or laziness for misrepresentation of numbers/statistics/etc, it's usually some poor SME that writes the report, and then the Manager sees the "60%", freaks out, asks the SME to rewrite making it softer, and thus the truth is (given a serious effort to be hidden). I've been writing audit, security, and other reports a big part of my life. I tend to write numbers in the form of "5 out of 100 X (5%) examined, regarding the Y process, failed due to..". It freaks out anyone who reads my reports, but, hey, they pay me for accuracy and truth. Once I send it (and it's 'untouched' on my Sent Items), they can do whatever they want with it, as long as they put THEIR names & signatures in the bottom if they change a single word (sorry for the cynicism but there exists no corporate hill that I want to die on) - also you never know when a regulator will come back 6.5 years later and ask about THAT job scheduler that was transferring £€$5bn per day between X-system and Y-system. I cannot recount the AMOUNT of times my report has 'softer' writing in the end, and it's their prerogative. But "it's not deliberate"????? No way in hell!!! Manager --> Director --> C-suite --> Audit Committee --> Regulator. EVERYONE will change a couple of words, and instead of a dumpster fire (Red) it will end up being Yellow.
  - Chris2048 3y ago
    Maybe there should be official guidelines for stats communication that require a certain level of legalise-like specify. No more "there is no evidence for.." of the sci world.
- Chris2048 3y ago
  The phrase "who just happened to pick up fallen boxes" suggests the boxes had already left the train at that point? Not the same as entering the train.
  - pooper 3y ago
    This just sounds like the police not doing its job. Or rather doing busy work to avoid doing its job. Previously on reddit https://old.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/ree4ef/this_huge_bust_includes_a_row_of_1_bills_and_two/ https://old.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/ree4ef/this_huge_...
RecycledEle 3y ago
I expect members of organize gangs do want to not admit to being members of such gangs. I would expect to hear a slurred version of "I just wanted something and I saw a box. I'm homeless. I don't have a name. They never told me when I was born. I didn't grow up like you did."

dragonwriter 3y ago

> It's just one datapoint, but under 5% of the thefts this specific taskforce identified were perpretrated by organized groups. 5% of the people arrested, not 5% of the thefts. “Less sophisticated thieves are more likely to be arrested” isn’t a surprising result.

pixl97 3y ago
Yep, much harder to get caught if you have a team monitoring for police activity and a ready get away car and they know where to hit with the highest response times.
gorlilla 3y ago
It's still accurate in the sense of proximate cause. Each theft event is a singular event composed of one or possibly multiple items being stolen.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > It's still accurate in the sense of proximate cause Its not, though. > Each theft event is a singular event composed of one or possibly multiple items being stolen. Even if you ignore that the arrest rate likely isn't consistent between the two groups, that doesn't make the arrest proportion “accurate in the sense of oroxinate cause” unless you assume also that the organized vs. disorganized arrested parties are responsible for the same number of theft events per individual. All the proportion of individuals arrested in the theft ring vs. not actually tells you is the proportion if individuals areested. It doesn't tell you the proportion of “theft events” or the proportion of $ valie of theft or anything else.

londons_explore 3y ago

> who just happened to pick up fallen boxes I wonder if any of those 'fallen' boxes were deliberately dropped in an area covered by CCTV just to catch opportunistic thieves? It would certainly be a good way to catch one type of thief while entirely missing the biggest heists.

0cf8612b2e1e 3y ago
If you pick up a box off the road, are you a thief?
- sandworm101 3y ago
  Yes. The fact that property is unguarded doesn't render it free to any random person. You can legitimately safeguard something, such as moving it off the road, but once you open the box or take the box home, you are a thief. And if the box is sitting on railroad property, you are likely guilty of attempted theft as soon as you pick it up. Also trespassing.
  - pi-e-sigma 3y ago
    What you say is not true in the slightest. In a lot of the US jurisdictions you can keep what you found provided you report it to the authorities and nobody claims it in some time frame. In other cases you can take what you found if you found it on your land etc. Lots of various laws apply, depending where you live and what exactly you found. If it was likely to be intentionally left where you found it to be later picked up again, or if it was intentionally abandoned etc. You can even take legal ownership of land that you and the authorities know is not yours provided you use it long enough (adverse possession) and you think a random box left by the side of the road is somehow untouchable?
    - sandworm101 3y ago
      Not for amazon boxes that fall off trucks.

lupusreal 3y ago

> who just happened to pick up fallen boxes. Anybody who believes this is being foolish. Packages don't just "fall off" of boxcars. Those cars aren't open topped, the cardboard packages would be ruined by the weather if they were. The only way for a package to fall off a train is if somebody deliberately breaks into the train cars with those packages, and probably starts throwing the packages off the train. The fact that they couldn't charge most people with that only highlights the inadequacy of their enforcement.

usrusr 3y ago

They catch the vultures who arrive at the scene when the lions who did the hunting are gone. Perhaps some of what is happening is truly done by opportunistic amateurs, but the observation voted would also be perfectly consistent with a ground truth where every single case was done by an organized group.

infecto 3y ago

Wrong interpretation. Others already pointed out the volume of items stolen but it I don't think that statistic points out who perpetrated the original crime. It makes sense, only a handful of individuals would be the ones break the train, anyone else around would certainly jump in the action.

rdtsc 3y ago

> were part of these organized groups I could also see that people performing the crime might be unhoused, what are they going to do with 20 blenders they just stole? They will go to some organized group and sell the loot for some cash. So on paper it doesn’t appear organized in practice it’s sort of is. If there is no one buying the 20 blenders, it’s not worth bothering jumping on a train for them.