> We can examine the decision in more detail. When down by 8 with four possessions to go (which matches up with when Carolina went for a two point conversion),

> We can examine the decision in more detail. When down by 8 with four possessions to go (which matches up with when Carolina went for a two point conversion), a team has one of two choices: Down by 8 and facing a conversion opportunity means you were down by 14 and just scored a touchdown (6 points). It's more that 1 percentage point change (1.7%) not less (and as others have pointed out, it increases your win probability by about 15%), so there is still a misreading.