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And if you're confused about how a system could even be deployed if the accuracy rate is so bad it leads to a majority of those identified as criminals being fa
by Cheer2171 3y ago
And if you're confused about how a system could even be deployed if the accuracy rate is so bad it leads to a majority of those identified as criminals being false positives... This can result from just measuring accuracy rates, instead of sensitivity and specificity or related error metrics. Say a classifier has a 99.9% accuracy rate for any given photo. If used to identify criminals, and if only 0.1% of the population are criminals, this will lead to a false arrest rate of 50%.
It is a basic statistical fallacy literally called the prosecutor's fallacy, because it gets misued so much in criminal law, also called the base rate fallacy. 99.9% accuracy sounds high, and is above what state of the art performance is for noisy real-world surveillance data.
But imagine this system is used on a city with a population of 1 million people. With an accuracy rate of 99.9%, the system will correctly identify a criminal as a criminal 99.9% of the time. But the actual proportion of criminals is, say, 0.1% or 1,000 criminals out of 1 million people.
When the system scans all 1 million people, it correctly identifies about 999 of the 1,000 criminals (99.9% of 1,000). But here's the catch: it also mistakenly identifies 0.1% of the 999,000 innocent people as criminals. That's 999 false positives. So, the system ends up flagging nearly 1,998 individuals (999 true criminals + 999 false positives) as criminals.
- jacquesm 3y agoIndeed. The most commonly encountered example uses medical tests for cancer as the subject and it is one of the reasons why increased testing does not lead automatically to improved outcomes.