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> ...the Bucs would eventually lose because Coach Todd Bowles forgot to use his final timeout. Is this intended to be tongue-in-cheek? Reading such a statement

> ...the Bucs would eventually lose because Coach Todd Bowles forgot to use his final timeout. Is this intended to be tongue-in-cheek? Reading such a statement (which logically implies that "if Todd Bowles had used his final timeout, the Bucs would have won") in a post about how other people's reasoning is insufficiently rigorous is off-putting.

thehappypm 3y ago
No, it's not tongue-in-cheek but it's oversimplifying the situation. The Bucs might have been able to win if they had used their last timeout. It sounds like the coaching staff were morons and couldn't count to 3. However, they were given an extra timeout due to an unusual situation, and it seems that the coaches were either unaware of the extra timeout or forgot about it.
- graywh 3y ago
  if the Bucs use that timeout, the Lions could still get the clock to around 11 seconds before needing to punt
- mason55 3y ago
  It's unclear. The Lions also weren't running down the play clock. Possibly everyone just accepted that the game was over and the Lions didn't run down the play clock and the Bucs didn't use their time out. Or Bowles mentally marked the game as over and then didn't notice the Lions messed up with the play clock.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
dgfitz 3y ago
> So, the game clock showed 36 seconds remaining when Goff took a knee for the third and final time and the hugs and the handshakes, the celebrations and condolences, commenced. > Now, had Bowles used his last timeout, maybe the Lions decide to punt instead of attempting a long field goal. But Bowles surmised a kick through the uprights would have ensued. Basically, he would have had 36 seconds because of the clock mismanagement on the side of Detroit. Even with 0 timeouts, you can knock out 4-5 solid plays, which is a lot more than 0 solid plays. He goofed up. https://apnews.com/article/lions-buccaneers-bowles-campbell-mayfield-goff-77600943664e6925daafb6acaed64288 https://apnews.com/article/lions-buccaneers-bowles-campbell-...
- allturtles 3y ago
  Granting that this analysis is correct (it seems to be disputed), 36 seconds to play from deep in your own territory with an 8-point deficit is a far cry from a guaranteed win. If the Lions had kicked a successful field goal instead of punting, that would be an 11-point deficit. Claiming that the Bucs lost because of this error is way off, they almost certainly would have lost anyway.
- aidenn0 3y ago
  Yeah, it probably increases your absolute win probability by a percentage point or two. Just like the 2pt conversion strategy that TFA is ranting against

thehappypm 3y ago

No, it's not tongue-in-cheek but it's oversimplifying the situation. The Bucs might have been able to win if they had used their last timeout. It sounds like the coaching staff were morons and couldn't count to 3. However, they were given an extra timeout due to an unusual situation, and it seems that the coaches were either unaware of the extra timeout or forgot about it.

graywh 3y ago
if the Bucs use that timeout, the Lions could still get the clock to around 11 seconds before needing to punt
mason55 3y ago
It's unclear. The Lions also weren't running down the play clock. Possibly everyone just accepted that the game was over and the Lions didn't run down the play clock and the Bucs didn't use their time out. Or Bowles mentally marked the game as over and then didn't notice the Lions messed up with the play clock.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

dgfitz 3y ago

> So, the game clock showed 36 seconds remaining when Goff took a knee for the third and final time and the hugs and the handshakes, the celebrations and condolences, commenced. > Now, had Bowles used his last timeout, maybe the Lions decide to punt instead of attempting a long field goal. But Bowles surmised a kick through the uprights would have ensued. Basically, he would have had 36 seconds because of the clock mismanagement on the side of Detroit. Even with 0 timeouts, you can knock out 4-5 solid plays, which is a lot more than 0 solid plays. He goofed up. https://apnews.com/article/lions-buccaneers-bowles-campbell-mayfield-goff-77600943664e6925daafb6acaed64288 https://apnews.com/article/lions-buccaneers-bowles-campbell-...

allturtles 3y ago
Granting that this analysis is correct (it seems to be disputed), 36 seconds to play from deep in your own territory with an 8-point deficit is a far cry from a guaranteed win. If the Lions had kicked a successful field goal instead of punting, that would be an 11-point deficit. Claiming that the Bucs lost because of this error is way off, they almost certainly would have lost anyway.
aidenn0 3y ago
Yeah, it probably increases your absolute win probability by a percentage point or two. Just like the 2pt conversion strategy that TFA is ranting against