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The reality is that whether Boeing choose to do a re-brand of the Max, the underlying airplane is here to stay. For this class of airline, there are basically t

The reality is that whether Boeing choose to do a re-brand of the Max, the underlying airplane is here to stay. For this class of airline, there are basically two suppliers in the west - Boeing and Airbus. Boeing has about 6,000 orders for the Max, and Airbus has about 10,000 orders for the A320 Neo. Airbus is delivering about 500 planes a year. So let's say an airline bites the bullet and cancels their orders for the Max and goes to Airbus - Airbus won't be able to deliver for the best part of a decade at best. Meanwhile, it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch and it still has tonnes of outstanding orders. And that's not even considering the fact that these airplanes have a lifespan of 25 years. So in general there's simply no replacement for the 737 Max. People will be flying on them for the foreseeable future unless something causes a massive drop in air travel.

nottorp 3y ago
> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch and it still has tonnes of outstanding orders More expensive than not selling any of them?
- _ph_ 3y ago
  It actually isn't a question of the money so much as of time. A new airplane would take about 10-15 years to come to market. And then nothing is won. The problem isn't that the doors are bad on the Max, the problem is, that they are not properly attached. Also rushing a new plane is more likely to be a safety risk. The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane - there is plenty knowledge on how to operate it safely. A completely new design would start that from scratch.
  - nottorp 3y ago
    > The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane Which 737? Have you forgotten the 350 people killed by trying to make the 737 MAX pretend it flies like an earlier model?
    - _ph_ 3y ago
      All of them. As shown by the overall statistics. And no, I haven't forgotten the MAX crashes. But the issue was addressed. And I hope all 737 pilots have checked the corresponding cutoff switches. But that is exactly the point: a new plane would mean a new learning phase how to operate it safely. It can and should be done, but it isn't a silver bullet, especially none which would arrive withing the next 10 years.
kloch 3y ago
> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch Boeing has spent enough on stock buybacks for three or four clean-sheet 737 redesigns: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/boeing-safety-stock-buybacks https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/boeing-safety-stock-buy... > Boeing is a world leader in stock buybacks. Between 1998 and 2018, the plane manufacturer also manufactured a whopping $61.0 billion in stock buybacks, amounting to 81.8 percent of its profits.
andix 3y ago
Without the 737 max the airlines would need to change the way how they operate. And use more smaller and bigger planes. So not necessarily a drop in air travel is needed. Also the lifetime of existing planes could be extended a bit.

nottorp 3y ago

> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch and it still has tonnes of outstanding orders More expensive than not selling any of them?

_ph_ 3y ago
It actually isn't a question of the money so much as of time. A new airplane would take about 10-15 years to come to market. And then nothing is won. The problem isn't that the doors are bad on the Max, the problem is, that they are not properly attached. Also rushing a new plane is more likely to be a safety risk. The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane - there is plenty knowledge on how to operate it safely. A completely new design would start that from scratch.
- nottorp 3y ago
  > The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane Which 737? Have you forgotten the 350 people killed by trying to make the 737 MAX pretend it flies like an earlier model?
  - _ph_ 3y ago
    All of them. As shown by the overall statistics. And no, I haven't forgotten the MAX crashes. But the issue was addressed. And I hope all 737 pilots have checked the corresponding cutoff switches. But that is exactly the point: a new plane would mean a new learning phase how to operate it safely. It can and should be done, but it isn't a silver bullet, especially none which would arrive withing the next 10 years.

kloch 3y ago

> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch Boeing has spent enough on stock buybacks for three or four clean-sheet 737 redesigns: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/boeing-safety-stock-buybacks https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/boeing-safety-stock-buy... > Boeing is a world leader in stock buybacks. Between 1998 and 2018, the plane manufacturer also manufactured a whopping $61.0 billion in stock buybacks, amounting to 81.8 percent of its profits.

andix 3y ago

Without the 737 max the airlines would need to change the way how they operate. And use more smaller and bigger planes. So not necessarily a drop in air travel is needed. Also the lifetime of existing planes could be extended a bit.