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I imagine after the first car was invented if somebody described our current situation with cars most people would be as sceptical as you are about this. If th

I imagine after the first car was invented if somebody described our current situation with cars most people would be as sceptical as you are about this. If the purpose of Government is to govern as per the will of the people, AI's ability will likely surpass Humans in this task certainly in my lifetime. Talking about current gen AI is like talking about the Benz Patent-Motorwagen, We haven't reached the Ford Model T and we can't even imagine a Tesla Model X.

ben_w 3y ago
Given how bad the Benz Patent-Motorwagen was, I think the DIY/"open source" LLMs would count as equivalents of that, and that OpenAI, Stable Diffusion, and Midjourney (especially given their popularity and economic disruptiveness to buggy whip manufacturers/artists) are equivalents of the Model-T. Cars have become more efficient, comfortable and safe since then, but the utility is similar. But I also think cars are a terrible analogy. Internal combustion engines collectively are probably more apt, and for that case: OpenAI's various models may well be the 1776 Watt steam engine — a basic useful tool that displaces manual labor, which has a direct influence in its own right, but which would also see categorical replacement several times over.
- InsomniacL 3y ago
  > Given how bad the Benz Patent-Motorwagen was, I think the DIY/"open source" LLMs would count as equivalents of that, and that OpenAI, Stable Diffusion, and Midjourney (especially given their popularity and economic disruptiveness to buggy whip manufacturers/artists) are equivalents of the Model-T It's difficult to put things on a scale when you don't know what the end outcome will be. There was over 20 years between the Benz Patent-Motorwagen and the Ford Model T. I think the AI equivalent of the Model T won't be available for 5 - 10 years but it will follow some of the notes of the Model T (Mass Produced, lower cost of ownership, Changes most other industries, mass customisation, etc)

ben_w 3y ago

Given how bad the Benz Patent-Motorwagen was, I think the DIY/"open source" LLMs would count as equivalents of that, and that OpenAI, Stable Diffusion, and Midjourney (especially given their popularity and economic disruptiveness to buggy whip manufacturers/artists) are equivalents of the Model-T. Cars have become more efficient, comfortable and safe since then, but the utility is similar. But I also think cars are a terrible analogy. Internal combustion engines collectively are probably more apt, and for that case: OpenAI's various models may well be the 1776 Watt steam engine — a basic useful tool that displaces manual labor, which has a direct influence in its own right, but which would also see categorical replacement several times over.

InsomniacL 3y ago
> Given how bad the Benz Patent-Motorwagen was, I think the DIY/"open source" LLMs would count as equivalents of that, and that OpenAI, Stable Diffusion, and Midjourney (especially given their popularity and economic disruptiveness to buggy whip manufacturers/artists) are equivalents of the Model-T It's difficult to put things on a scale when you don't know what the end outcome will be. There was over 20 years between the Benz Patent-Motorwagen and the Ford Model T. I think the AI equivalent of the Model T won't be available for 5 - 10 years but it will follow some of the notes of the Model T (Mass Produced, lower cost of ownership, Changes most other industries, mass customisation, etc)