While this is true, there is also a survivorship bias effect. Remember the semantic web? XML? When javascript was going to displace all other scripting langu

While this is true, there is also a survivorship bias effect. Remember the semantic web? XML? When javascript was going to displace all other scripting languages, from backend to database queries? If a technology follows the trend described by Amara's Law, we will recognize this, because at the end it's bigger than we had imagined (by definition). When it doesn't, we are less likely to remember how those overhyped predictions just never came to pass, because of that very fact. Maybe too early to say if blockchain will turn out to follow Amara's Law, but I have my doubts. Someone using Amara's Law in the first or second AI winters (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter) would, of course, have the option of just continually saying "it hasn't been long enough yet". But, you know, that very fact means that Amara's Law doesn't tell you much, even in the cases where it turns out the be true. And it doesn't, usually, turn out to be true.