SpaceX is already functionally a monopoly at 92% of Western launches with the remaining 8% being heavily subsidised holdouts or VC-subsidised challengers. I str

SpaceX is already functionally a monopoly at 92% of Western launches with the remaining 8% being heavily subsidised holdouts or VC-subsidised challengers. I strongly, strongly doubt SpaceX will ever face any regulatory scrutiny over that monopoly status in a location where it matters (the US), because SpaceX is the entire reason that the US is currently outcompeting China in space. The US isn't going to fuck with their golden goose, and they don't care if that really sucks for Arianespace et al. The EU could go after SpaceX for antitrust reasons, but SpaceX doesn't have European offices so they can just say no and not do business with the EU. SpaceX can afford to lose European commercial launches, the EU would lose access to by far the cheapest way to get into space (which they might do, to be clear, because getting into space is great but not critical for them). SpaceX isn't a company like Microsoft where they have a lot of employees in EU jurisdiction and need to do business with the EU for their business to be healthy.