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Completely agree that this is a global thing. The Anglosphere housing crisis does seem special to a particular kind of colonial development pattern. But TFR i

by michael1999 3y ago

Completely agree that this is a global thing. The Anglosphere housing crisis does seem special to a particular kind of colonial development pattern. But TFR is below replacement anywhere that has developed past poverty. Woke Canada and manly-manly Hungary are in the same boat. But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole. There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis -- landlords, real estate agents, homeowners, construction trades, the Family Compact, etc. Landlords have perfected the rennoviction sneak past rent-control. They love the crisis. Our mayor in 2000 was a (small-time crooked) furniture dealer. Immigrants buy furniture. Our last mayor worked for a monopoly cable company - every new immigrant needs a phone/tv/internet package. The Westons (grocery barons) basically make money from every new body in Canada. All of them know that more immigration = more money in their pocket. It's been hell on young people, but you might notice they aren't running the show.

NoMoreNicksLeft 3y ago
> But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole. I think in this case there is. Whether your ancestors have been there for 200 years, or you just naturalized last week... it's not in your interest for Canada to import another 70 million people so they can "be a player on the world stage". > There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis There are some who do relatively well in it, but it's doubtful to me that their (self-)perceived wealth is actually higher in these conditions than it would be in a country with a strong economy, low inflation, and an engaged workforce. Their 1%er income might be twice as high, but buys less than half as much. Most of the people you point out are lusting after a larger piece of a smaller pie. And the few that truly to gain advantage from this, they number in the low thousands or even hundreds, not the tens of millions. I'm not in Canada myself, but the country I am a citizen of is suffering the same exact problem. If mine is too dumb to fix it, it might be nice to at least see you guys succeed. Doesn't look like that's in the cards either.
- michael1999 3y ago
  That's just silly. The realistic alternative isn't a strong Canada with a strong economy, low inflation, and engaged workforce. The likely alternative is Canada facing demographic collapse! We'd have a shrinking workforce as the boomers retire, persistent wage inflation as we allocate more and more of the youth into elder-care, rising taxes, and flight to the USA by the talented and ambitions. CPP is bankrupt in 15 years without substantial immigration. Canada is currently having a spirited debate about levels. It's pretty obvious that 500k/a is higher than we can currently absorb. But 0 is just a recipe for a different disaster. I gave you a concrete list of people (real estate agents, furniture sales, monopoly owners, retiring home owners) that make tons of money off mass immigration. Your answer is "no they don't". If you can point to single country in the world that has defeated the stagnation of an aging population, I'm all ears. But if you are going to give me unrealistic counterfactuals, I might as well wish for a pony too. Here's Canada's dependency ratios over time: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/dep-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/de... And here's the global context: https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm We're in better shape that Italy and Japan. But absent immigration, we're in exactly the same boat. The baby boom has turned to baby bust.
  - michael1999 3y ago
    Just look at the crater where our 15-20 year-olds might be. Who exactly is going have babies in 10 years if not immigrants? We literally don't have the numbers to produce the next generation otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/File:Canada_2023_Population_Pyramid.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/...

NoMoreNicksLeft 3y ago

> But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole. I think in this case there is. Whether your ancestors have been there for 200 years, or you just naturalized last week... it's not in your interest for Canada to import another 70 million people so they can "be a player on the world stage". > There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis There are some who do relatively well in it, but it's doubtful to me that their (self-)perceived wealth is actually higher in these conditions than it would be in a country with a strong economy, low inflation, and an engaged workforce. Their 1%er income might be twice as high, but buys less than half as much. Most of the people you point out are lusting after a larger piece of a smaller pie. And the few that truly to gain advantage from this, they number in the low thousands or even hundreds, not the tens of millions. I'm not in Canada myself, but the country I am a citizen of is suffering the same exact problem. If mine is too dumb to fix it, it might be nice to at least see you guys succeed. Doesn't look like that's in the cards either.

michael1999 3y ago
That's just silly. The realistic alternative isn't a strong Canada with a strong economy, low inflation, and engaged workforce. The likely alternative is Canada facing demographic collapse! We'd have a shrinking workforce as the boomers retire, persistent wage inflation as we allocate more and more of the youth into elder-care, rising taxes, and flight to the USA by the talented and ambitions. CPP is bankrupt in 15 years without substantial immigration. Canada is currently having a spirited debate about levels. It's pretty obvious that 500k/a is higher than we can currently absorb. But 0 is just a recipe for a different disaster. I gave you a concrete list of people (real estate agents, furniture sales, monopoly owners, retiring home owners) that make tons of money off mass immigration. Your answer is "no they don't". If you can point to single country in the world that has defeated the stagnation of an aging population, I'm all ears. But if you are going to give me unrealistic counterfactuals, I might as well wish for a pony too. Here's Canada's dependency ratios over time: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/dep-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/de... And here's the global context: https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm We're in better shape that Italy and Japan. But absent immigration, we're in exactly the same boat. The baby boom has turned to baby bust.
- michael1999 3y ago
  Just look at the crater where our 15-20 year-olds might be. Who exactly is going have babies in 10 years if not immigrants? We literally don't have the numbers to produce the next generation otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/File:Canada_2023_Population_Pyramid.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/...