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Starlink has this market cornered until another company develops sufficiently reusable rockets. If AST SpaceMobile's bet is to try and work out the kinks in th

Starlink has this market cornered until another company develops sufficiently reusable rockets. If AST SpaceMobile's bet is to try and work out the kinks in their hardware while waiting for an alternative launch provider to come online then OK, I can't fault that mindset. IMO, if they get anywhere close to being competition then SpaceX will just change the contract terms going forward to neuter their viability. And why go public so early? AST SpaceMobile has been public for 5 years and is getting destroyed by the market. They just sold off majority ownership of their satellite manufacturing capabilities. Doesn't their strategy just invite pressure to monetize early at the cost of being able to experiment with R&D?

kiba 3y ago
Starlink has this market cornered until another company develops sufficiently reusable rockets. That's inaccurate. SpaceX developed Starlink to take advantage of their growing launch capabilities.Other companies could launch on SpaceX's rocket, but not to the scale of Starlink. Doesn't their strategy just invite pressure to monetize early at the cost of being able to experiment with R&D? You have other competitors who also have a lot of money.
AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> IMO, if they get anywhere close to being competition then SpaceX will just change the contract terms going forward to neuter their viability. If they were going to do this then why would they wait? They don't need to. The launch contract is where the profit is. Starlink is already competing with AT&T's ground network and has to maintain competitive pricing there regardless of whether there is a competing satellite network. AT&T benefits because they can stop maintaining ground infrastructure in rural locations and still compete for customers who care about it, and expand coverage to other countries, much of which will come at the expense of local carriers in those countries rather than Starlink. Starlink themselves might lose a few customers to AT&T but not as much as the profit on the launch contract, so why do they want to stop it?
- SeanAnderson 3y ago
  Starlink revenue in 2022 is reported to be $1.4B and SpaceX is $4.6B. SpaceX did 61 launches in 2022, or $75M per launch. Elon's on record saying it costs ~$65M to launch a rocket. So, assuming there wasn't another interested buyer, SpaceX is making about $10M allowing AST SpaceMobile to launch, but there's (potentially) a billion at stake if Starlink competition arises. I realize I'm mixing revenue and profits a bit. Just trying to ballpark some numbers. A year ago I would've agreed with you, but Starlink's revenue is up 600% YoY. There's enough money in Starlink for SpaceX to not risk it. I don't know why they allow it. Perhaps a sign of good faith to keep regulators off their backs?
  - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
    > SpaceX is making about $10M allowing AST SpaceMobile to launch $10M per launch. By comparison, Starlink has had over 100 launches: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshield_launches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshiel... AT&T doing the same number of launches would generate over $1B in profit. And again, Starlink is already competing with land-based cellular networks, and so would AT&T. So the bulk of the AT&T satellite customers could come at the expense of other land-based cellular networks rather than Starlink -- Starlink has ~2M users compared to >140M for Verizon Wireless (much less carriers in other countries), so who are they really competing with?
  - kiba 3y ago
    The price is nominally 67 million to launch in 2022.[1] A year ago I would've agreed with you, but Starlink's revenue is up 600% YoY. There's enough money in Starlink for SpaceX to not risk it. The problem of using a purely profit oriented analysis is that you missed major pieces of the puzzle. Antitrust action would be one reason that you neglected. Another reason is SpaceX's mission, which is the colonization of Mars. To do that, SpaceX need to help bootstrap an entire space economy from scratch to make colonization more than a pipe dream. 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-lau...
- lxgr 3y ago

kiba 3y ago

Starlink has this market cornered until another company develops sufficiently reusable rockets. That's inaccurate. SpaceX developed Starlink to take advantage of their growing launch capabilities.Other companies could launch on SpaceX's rocket, but not to the scale of Starlink. Doesn't their strategy just invite pressure to monetize early at the cost of being able to experiment with R&D? You have other competitors who also have a lot of money.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago

> IMO, if they get anywhere close to being competition then SpaceX will just change the contract terms going forward to neuter their viability. If they were going to do this then why would they wait? They don't need to. The launch contract is where the profit is. Starlink is already competing with AT&T's ground network and has to maintain competitive pricing there regardless of whether there is a competing satellite network. AT&T benefits because they can stop maintaining ground infrastructure in rural locations and still compete for customers who care about it, and expand coverage to other countries, much of which will come at the expense of local carriers in those countries rather than Starlink. Starlink themselves might lose a few customers to AT&T but not as much as the profit on the launch contract, so why do they want to stop it?

SeanAnderson 3y ago
Starlink revenue in 2022 is reported to be $1.4B and SpaceX is $4.6B. SpaceX did 61 launches in 2022, or $75M per launch. Elon's on record saying it costs ~$65M to launch a rocket. So, assuming there wasn't another interested buyer, SpaceX is making about $10M allowing AST SpaceMobile to launch, but there's (potentially) a billion at stake if Starlink competition arises. I realize I'm mixing revenue and profits a bit. Just trying to ballpark some numbers. A year ago I would've agreed with you, but Starlink's revenue is up 600% YoY. There's enough money in Starlink for SpaceX to not risk it. I don't know why they allow it. Perhaps a sign of good faith to keep regulators off their backs?
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  > SpaceX is making about $10M allowing AST SpaceMobile to launch $10M per launch. By comparison, Starlink has had over 100 launches: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshield_launches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshiel... AT&T doing the same number of launches would generate over $1B in profit. And again, Starlink is already competing with land-based cellular networks, and so would AT&T. So the bulk of the AT&T satellite customers could come at the expense of other land-based cellular networks rather than Starlink -- Starlink has ~2M users compared to >140M for Verizon Wireless (much less carriers in other countries), so who are they really competing with?
- kiba 3y ago
  The price is nominally 67 million to launch in 2022.[1] A year ago I would've agreed with you, but Starlink's revenue is up 600% YoY. There's enough money in Starlink for SpaceX to not risk it. The problem of using a purely profit oriented analysis is that you missed major pieces of the puzzle. Antitrust action would be one reason that you neglected. Another reason is SpaceX's mission, which is the colonization of Mars. To do that, SpaceX need to help bootstrap an entire space economy from scratch to make colonization more than a pipe dream. 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-lau...
lxgr 3y ago