4 ms·

$3500 * 180000 = $630m or have I done the maths wrong? I would say that is a LOT even for Apple!

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
Apple makes $390B per year - which is about ~$1.06B per day. So, yeah, $630m for one weekend is a lot. Though, if you look at iPhone sales - Apple sold 13M iPhone 6s in the first week - and in 2 years sold about 200M - meaning about ~6.5% of sales over 2 years. This would mean the Vision Pro might be on pace to sell about ~$6B per year - which is about ~1.5% of Apple revenue. This is less than 1/3rd of AirPods - so, for a company the size of Apple - this doesn't really seem that significant right now. It's obviously hard to predict the future, though...
- dasil003 3y ago
  iPhone and AirPods are mature mass market items with historically juicy margin and volume. I don't think it's appropriate to compare Vision Pro on this basis because AR/VR just isn't there yet in terms of market adoption. Even as it matures, it may never grow to the size of the smartphone market, but right now the upside is undeniable. Playing in that market competitively will require a large ongoing investment for years, perhaps decades, so I'm more inclined to judge Vision Pro on the qualitative feedback. The preorders just represent short-term hype which is 90% Apple brand and marketing, so I'm not reading too much into them either way.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Apple's device sales seem to have largely plateaued though. Id say any new device growth is pretty significant for them.
- dmoy 3y ago
  Thanks for all the context. I really wish journalists would include this sort of thing regularly. Especially in today's world where there isn't a limitation on physical print size.
- walthamstow 3y ago
  I'm not remotely sure about your extrapolation there. The 6s came out when everyone already had a smartphone. Likewise AirPods when most people had Bluetooth headphones. Both mass market products. This is a brand new product line. Nobody knows if they want one yet. Mass-market normies have barely heard of it. Now, if you'd compared it to the OG iPhone...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
    This is not a brand new product line. Similar to AirPods - the headset market has been around for a while now. There's ~12M VR headsets being sold per year already. As far back as 2019 - there were ~5M VR headsets being sold per year.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - musictubes 3y ago
      “Spatial Computing” is a new product category. Apple is not marketing this as a VR headset or gaming device. It certainly is a new product category for Apple in any case. I’m having flashbacks to iPhone and BlackBerry comparisons. Sure, they were both “smartphones” but once the App Store came out the iPhone was clearly in a different category of device. The form factor isn’t nearly as important to defining what the product category is as what the device is used for and what problems it solves IMO. App Store policies and shenanigans will probably prevent the Vision Pro from overlapping too much with existing VR headsets use cases. Right now it isn’t clear that many people that like the Quest would buy a Vision Pro even if money wasn’t an issue. The use cases are that different. I think the reverse is true as well, there will be plenty of people that will be interested in the VP and not in VR headsets. If nothing else that points to market segmentation.
    - walthamstow 3y ago
      12m a year globally, is that all? I think many more smartphones were being sold when the 6s came out
- pzo 3y ago
  They also sell around 20 million Mac per year. Even though they are great these days and people see value in having laptop/desktop it's still only like 10% of market share. And in those 20 million Mac a year probably bulks of sales are cheaper Macbook air and Mac mini It's unlikely to gonna be a big source of apple revenue until they can reduce price to sub $2000 and/or provider bigger value. Would like if they provided usb/Hdmi out so that it could also act as Mac and apple Tv replacement when connected to TV or monitor + MacOS support.

Apple makes $390B per year - which is about ~$1.06B per day. So, yeah, $630m for one weekend is a lot. Though, if you look at iPhone sales - Apple sold 13M iPhone 6s in the first week - and in 2 years sold about 200M - meaning about ~6.5% of sales over 2 years. This would mean the Vision Pro might be on pace to sell about ~$6B per year - which is about ~1.5% of Apple revenue. This is less than 1/3rd of AirPods - so, for a company the size of Apple - this doesn't really seem that significant right now. It's obviously hard to predict the future, though...

dasil003 3y ago
iPhone and AirPods are mature mass market items with historically juicy margin and volume. I don't think it's appropriate to compare Vision Pro on this basis because AR/VR just isn't there yet in terms of market adoption. Even as it matures, it may never grow to the size of the smartphone market, but right now the upside is undeniable. Playing in that market competitively will require a large ongoing investment for years, perhaps decades, so I'm more inclined to judge Vision Pro on the qualitative feedback. The preorders just represent short-term hype which is 90% Apple brand and marketing, so I'm not reading too much into them either way.
HDThoreaun 3y ago
Apple's device sales seem to have largely plateaued though. Id say any new device growth is pretty significant for them.
dmoy 3y ago
Thanks for all the context. I really wish journalists would include this sort of thing regularly. Especially in today's world where there isn't a limitation on physical print size.
walthamstow 3y ago
I'm not remotely sure about your extrapolation there. The 6s came out when everyone already had a smartphone. Likewise AirPods when most people had Bluetooth headphones. Both mass market products. This is a brand new product line. Nobody knows if they want one yet. Mass-market normies have barely heard of it. Now, if you'd compared it to the OG iPhone...
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  This is not a brand new product line. Similar to AirPods - the headset market has been around for a while now. There's ~12M VR headsets being sold per year already. As far back as 2019 - there were ~5M VR headsets being sold per year.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - musictubes 3y ago
    “Spatial Computing” is a new product category. Apple is not marketing this as a VR headset or gaming device. It certainly is a new product category for Apple in any case. I’m having flashbacks to iPhone and BlackBerry comparisons. Sure, they were both “smartphones” but once the App Store came out the iPhone was clearly in a different category of device. The form factor isn’t nearly as important to defining what the product category is as what the device is used for and what problems it solves IMO. App Store policies and shenanigans will probably prevent the Vision Pro from overlapping too much with existing VR headsets use cases. Right now it isn’t clear that many people that like the Quest would buy a Vision Pro even if money wasn’t an issue. The use cases are that different. I think the reverse is true as well, there will be plenty of people that will be interested in the VP and not in VR headsets. If nothing else that points to market segmentation.
  - walthamstow 3y ago
    12m a year globally, is that all? I think many more smartphones were being sold when the 6s came out
pzo 3y ago
They also sell around 20 million Mac per year. Even though they are great these days and people see value in having laptop/desktop it's still only like 10% of market share. And in those 20 million Mac a year probably bulks of sales are cheaper Macbook air and Mac mini It's unlikely to gonna be a big source of apple revenue until they can reduce price to sub $2000 and/or provider bigger value. Would like if they provided usb/Hdmi out so that it could also act as Mac and apple Tv replacement when connected to TV or monitor + MacOS support.