4 ms·

Is that a lot or a little?

by spicyusername 3y ago

meepmorp 3y ago
It's more than they've ever had for a vision pro release.
detourdog 3y ago
a lot for a Mac a little for an iPhone.
sp332 3y ago
Seems like a lot. It would take 150 days just to run Apple's "making of" video that many times.
andy_ppp 3y ago
$3500 * 180000 = $630m or have I done the maths wrong? I would say that is a LOT even for Apple!
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  Apple makes $390B per year - which is about ~$1.06B per day. So, yeah, $630m for one weekend is a lot. Though, if you look at iPhone sales - Apple sold 13M iPhone 6s in the first week - and in 2 years sold about 200M - meaning about ~6.5% of sales over 2 years. This would mean the Vision Pro might be on pace to sell about ~$6B per year - which is about ~1.5% of Apple revenue. This is less than 1/3rd of AirPods - so, for a company the size of Apple - this doesn't really seem that significant right now. It's obviously hard to predict the future, though...
  - dasil003 3y ago
    iPhone and AirPods are mature mass market items with historically juicy margin and volume. I don't think it's appropriate to compare Vision Pro on this basis because AR/VR just isn't there yet in terms of market adoption. Even as it matures, it may never grow to the size of the smartphone market, but right now the upside is undeniable. Playing in that market competitively will require a large ongoing investment for years, perhaps decades, so I'm more inclined to judge Vision Pro on the qualitative feedback. The preorders just represent short-term hype which is 90% Apple brand and marketing, so I'm not reading too much into them either way.
  - HDThoreaun 3y ago
    Apple's device sales seem to have largely plateaued though. Id say any new device growth is pretty significant for them.
  - dmoy 3y ago
    Thanks for all the context. I really wish journalists would include this sort of thing regularly. Especially in today's world where there isn't a limitation on physical print size.
  - walthamstow 3y ago
    I'm not remotely sure about your extrapolation there. The 6s came out when everyone already had a smartphone. Likewise AirPods when most people had Bluetooth headphones. Both mass market products. This is a brand new product line. Nobody knows if they want one yet. Mass-market normies have barely heard of it. Now, if you'd compared it to the OG iPhone...
    - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
      This is not a brand new product line. Similar to AirPods - the headset market has been around for a while now. There's ~12M VR headsets being sold per year already. As far back as 2019 - there were ~5M VR headsets being sold per year.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - musictubes 3y ago
        “Spatial Computing” is a new product category. Apple is not marketing this as a VR headset or gaming device. It certainly is a new product category for Apple in any case. I’m having flashbacks to iPhone and BlackBerry comparisons. Sure, they were both “smartphones” but once the App Store came out the iPhone was clearly in a different category of device. The form factor isn’t nearly as important to defining what the product category is as what the device is used for and what problems it solves IMO. App Store policies and shenanigans will probably prevent the Vision Pro from overlapping too much with existing VR headsets use cases. Right now it isn’t clear that many people that like the Quest would buy a Vision Pro even if money wasn’t an issue. The use cases are that different. I think the reverse is true as well, there will be plenty of people that will be interested in the VP and not in VR headsets. If nothing else that points to market segmentation.
      - walthamstow 3y ago
        12m a year globally, is that all? I think many more smartphones were being sold when the 6s came out
  - pzo 3y ago
    They also sell around 20 million Mac per year. Even though they are great these days and people see value in having laptop/desktop it's still only like 10% of market share. And in those 20 million Mac a year probably bulks of sales are cheaper Macbook air and Mac mini It's unlikely to gonna be a big source of apple revenue until they can reduce price to sub $2000 and/or provider bigger value. Would like if they provided usb/Hdmi out so that it could also act as Mac and apple Tv replacement when connected to TV or monitor + MacOS support.
ToucanLoucan 3y ago
Well the largest seller is Meta, naturally, since theirs are the cheapest and they've supposedly moved 20 million headsets. The second most popular (on Steam anyway which skews in it's favor) is the Valve Index, which has moved 149 thousand units. I mention that because I have a feeling a venn diagram of the purchasers of both the Vision Pro and Index have a lot of overlap. I don't have data for that beyond the numbers being kind of similar, but: - VR is a niche technology - Index and Vision Pro are both quite pricey and unlikely to be someone's first go into the tech, so you're talking true VR enthusiasts. Casual wanna-tryers are going to go for a used Vive or a Meta Quest That being said I wouldn't die on the hill of this analysis, because while the Index is expensive (full kit is about $1k) there's still a steep increase for Vision Pro, which runs $3,600 if memory serves.
- notfried 3y ago
  The 20M figure includes Quest 1, 2, and Pro, and spans several years [0]. [0: https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstream/ https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstr...]
- jitl 3y ago
  I enjoyed my Index and I also pre-ordered the Apple Vision Pro
- solardev 3y ago
  You can't really run AAA games on the Vision, can you?
  - anthonyskipper 3y ago
    You can run AAA games on any apple silicon, and the perf is usually superior to anything else on the market except specialized gaming PCs. The real issue is that there is a small selection compared to xbox/ps/pc.
    - ToucanLoucan 3y ago
      > You can run AAA games on any apple silicon This is a pretty big oversimplification. Anyone familiar with VR tech and VR gaming knows that experiences that aren't made and instead are modified after the fact to be VR compatible =/= VR experiences. In that sense, I would say the only truly AAA VR game I know of is Half Life Alyx. And it is incredible mind you, but this is a very, very, very exclusive club for games to be in. MAYBE you could count Skyrim VR as it's by far the most polished VR port I've played, with only some jank here and there. But then you have stuff like Fallout 4 VR which, and I say this as someone who put an unethical amount of time into Fallout 4, Fallout 4 VR is just... trash. Just pure garbage. Utterly unplayable. And then there's Doom 2016 VR, which like... you took a run and gun and had to remove the run part to make it so people wouldn't vomit violently after 5 minutes. Is it even the same game?
pchristensen 3y ago
It is estimated that it will be supply constrained all year by the screens for each eye, to about 1 million total units for in 2024. So, selling nearly 20% on the first weekend? Sounds like a lot.
svnt 3y ago
The article mentions Apple has 1.2 billion active users. They need 0.014% of those to buy one to hit that number. The bigger question, also mentioned in the article, is how many of those preorders are scalpers.
- heliophobicdude 3y ago
  Some that I follow are pre-ordering multiples but intending to return all but one. Some did it to secure a launch day model or specific fit.
  - svnt 3y ago
    I find the scalpers always have such reasonable sounding rationalizations.
- padjo 3y ago
  It’s only available to US users, so your math is probably a bit off.
  - svnt 3y ago
    So you’re saying more scalpers than I thought? More seriously I found 150 million active iPhones in the USA, which would make it roughly 0.12%, or we can use 40% of revenue to scale our original guess (since presumably the US contains a large proportion of those 1.2 billion who would purchase a $3500 device) and get to 0.035%.
kergonath 3y ago
I would say both. it’s an irrelevant fraction of the market. At the same time, you need some faith to buy into this at the moment. We’ll see in an iteration or two whether it worked out or not. How big that is also depends on their production run, and I don’t think we’ll have any accurate figure for that for quite some time, if ever.
tlb 3y ago
180k developers is a lot. 180k consumers is barely a market. I think it's mostly developers, though. I ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff.
- stcredzero 3y ago
  I ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff. Considering what Dall-E and the like are capable of, I suspect that AI will be able to lay out data for us. This includes tasks where multiple web and smartphone apps are opened and data is entered. These could be opened grouped in framed windows, with process lines drawn between them.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- abhayhegde 3y ago
  Well, the truth is somewhere in between. A decent market for now perhaps depsite the hesitation in buying the first gen product because of its imperfections.
  - MuffinFlavored 3y ago
    On the flip side, there's a decent market for people with disposable income who just always have to buy the latest and greatest gadget because they read about it online/because it's new and fresh.
    - tlb 3y ago
      Yes, though it's not a great market. Usage tends to be low (they sit in a drawer) so there's not much follow-on app store revenue, and developers don't target your platform. "Developers! stomp Developers! stomp Developers!" is actually great wisdom.
- paxys 3y ago
  I'm gonna guess it's mostly rich techies who buy every product Apple releases. Remember there is a market for their $700 Mac Pro wheels (https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-wheels-kit https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-w...).
whywhywhywhy 3y ago
It's a ton if you were a startup launching your first product from nothing. Not much for Apple, Meta reports 20 million Quest sales (18M of that Quest 2 sales so you can take an educated guess how much the 1 and Pro made up of the remaining 2M). From what's going in the device the margins are probably not great on the main unit, especially when you compare it to the plastic Quest 2.

Is that a lot or a little?

meepmorp 3y ago

It's more than they've ever had for a vision pro release.

detourdog 3y ago

a lot for a Mac a little for an iPhone.

sp332 3y ago

Seems like a lot. It would take 150 days just to run Apple's "making of" video that many times.

andy_ppp 3y ago

$3500 * 180000 = $630m or have I done the maths wrong? I would say that is a LOT even for Apple!

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
Apple makes $390B per year - which is about ~$1.06B per day. So, yeah, $630m for one weekend is a lot. Though, if you look at iPhone sales - Apple sold 13M iPhone 6s in the first week - and in 2 years sold about 200M - meaning about ~6.5% of sales over 2 years. This would mean the Vision Pro might be on pace to sell about ~$6B per year - which is about ~1.5% of Apple revenue. This is less than 1/3rd of AirPods - so, for a company the size of Apple - this doesn't really seem that significant right now. It's obviously hard to predict the future, though...
- dasil003 3y ago
  iPhone and AirPods are mature mass market items with historically juicy margin and volume. I don't think it's appropriate to compare Vision Pro on this basis because AR/VR just isn't there yet in terms of market adoption. Even as it matures, it may never grow to the size of the smartphone market, but right now the upside is undeniable. Playing in that market competitively will require a large ongoing investment for years, perhaps decades, so I'm more inclined to judge Vision Pro on the qualitative feedback. The preorders just represent short-term hype which is 90% Apple brand and marketing, so I'm not reading too much into them either way.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Apple's device sales seem to have largely plateaued though. Id say any new device growth is pretty significant for them.
- dmoy 3y ago
  Thanks for all the context. I really wish journalists would include this sort of thing regularly. Especially in today's world where there isn't a limitation on physical print size.
- walthamstow 3y ago
  I'm not remotely sure about your extrapolation there. The 6s came out when everyone already had a smartphone. Likewise AirPods when most people had Bluetooth headphones. Both mass market products. This is a brand new product line. Nobody knows if they want one yet. Mass-market normies have barely heard of it. Now, if you'd compared it to the OG iPhone...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
    This is not a brand new product line. Similar to AirPods - the headset market has been around for a while now. There's ~12M VR headsets being sold per year already. As far back as 2019 - there were ~5M VR headsets being sold per year.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - musictubes 3y ago
      “Spatial Computing” is a new product category. Apple is not marketing this as a VR headset or gaming device. It certainly is a new product category for Apple in any case. I’m having flashbacks to iPhone and BlackBerry comparisons. Sure, they were both “smartphones” but once the App Store came out the iPhone was clearly in a different category of device. The form factor isn’t nearly as important to defining what the product category is as what the device is used for and what problems it solves IMO. App Store policies and shenanigans will probably prevent the Vision Pro from overlapping too much with existing VR headsets use cases. Right now it isn’t clear that many people that like the Quest would buy a Vision Pro even if money wasn’t an issue. The use cases are that different. I think the reverse is true as well, there will be plenty of people that will be interested in the VP and not in VR headsets. If nothing else that points to market segmentation.
    - walthamstow 3y ago
      12m a year globally, is that all? I think many more smartphones were being sold when the 6s came out
- pzo 3y ago
  They also sell around 20 million Mac per year. Even though they are great these days and people see value in having laptop/desktop it's still only like 10% of market share. And in those 20 million Mac a year probably bulks of sales are cheaper Macbook air and Mac mini It's unlikely to gonna be a big source of apple revenue until they can reduce price to sub $2000 and/or provider bigger value. Would like if they provided usb/Hdmi out so that it could also act as Mac and apple Tv replacement when connected to TV or monitor + MacOS support.

ToucanLoucan 3y ago

Well the largest seller is Meta, naturally, since theirs are the cheapest and they've supposedly moved 20 million headsets. The second most popular (on Steam anyway which skews in it's favor) is the Valve Index, which has moved 149 thousand units. I mention that because I have a feeling a venn diagram of the purchasers of both the Vision Pro and Index have a lot of overlap. I don't have data for that beyond the numbers being kind of similar, but: - VR is a niche technology - Index and Vision Pro are both quite pricey and unlikely to be someone's first go into the tech, so you're talking true VR enthusiasts. Casual wanna-tryers are going to go for a used Vive or a Meta Quest That being said I wouldn't die on the hill of this analysis, because while the Index is expensive (full kit is about $1k) there's still a steep increase for Vision Pro, which runs $3,600 if memory serves.

notfried 3y ago
The 20M figure includes Quest 1, 2, and Pro, and spans several years [0]. [0: https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstream/ https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstr...]
jitl 3y ago
I enjoyed my Index and I also pre-ordered the Apple Vision Pro
solardev 3y ago
You can't really run AAA games on the Vision, can you?
- anthonyskipper 3y ago
  You can run AAA games on any apple silicon, and the perf is usually superior to anything else on the market except specialized gaming PCs. The real issue is that there is a small selection compared to xbox/ps/pc.
  - ToucanLoucan 3y ago
    > You can run AAA games on any apple silicon This is a pretty big oversimplification. Anyone familiar with VR tech and VR gaming knows that experiences that aren't made and instead are modified after the fact to be VR compatible =/= VR experiences. In that sense, I would say the only truly AAA VR game I know of is Half Life Alyx. And it is incredible mind you, but this is a very, very, very exclusive club for games to be in. MAYBE you could count Skyrim VR as it's by far the most polished VR port I've played, with only some jank here and there. But then you have stuff like Fallout 4 VR which, and I say this as someone who put an unethical amount of time into Fallout 4, Fallout 4 VR is just... trash. Just pure garbage. Utterly unplayable. And then there's Doom 2016 VR, which like... you took a run and gun and had to remove the run part to make it so people wouldn't vomit violently after 5 minutes. Is it even the same game?

pchristensen 3y ago

It is estimated that it will be supply constrained all year by the screens for each eye, to about 1 million total units for in 2024. So, selling nearly 20% on the first weekend? Sounds like a lot.

svnt 3y ago

The article mentions Apple has 1.2 billion active users. They need 0.014% of those to buy one to hit that number. The bigger question, also mentioned in the article, is how many of those preorders are scalpers.

heliophobicdude 3y ago
Some that I follow are pre-ordering multiples but intending to return all but one. Some did it to secure a launch day model or specific fit.
- svnt 3y ago
  I find the scalpers always have such reasonable sounding rationalizations.
padjo 3y ago
It’s only available to US users, so your math is probably a bit off.
- svnt 3y ago
  So you’re saying more scalpers than I thought? More seriously I found 150 million active iPhones in the USA, which would make it roughly 0.12%, or we can use 40% of revenue to scale our original guess (since presumably the US contains a large proportion of those 1.2 billion who would purchase a $3500 device) and get to 0.035%.

kergonath 3y ago

I would say both. it’s an irrelevant fraction of the market. At the same time, you need some faith to buy into this at the moment. We’ll see in an iteration or two whether it worked out or not. How big that is also depends on their production run, and I don’t think we’ll have any accurate figure for that for quite some time, if ever.

tlb 3y ago

180k developers is a lot. 180k consumers is barely a market. I think it's mostly developers, though. I ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff.

stcredzero 3y ago
I ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff. Considering what Dall-E and the like are capable of, I suspect that AI will be able to lay out data for us. This includes tasks where multiple web and smartphone apps are opened and data is entered. These could be opened grouped in framed windows, with process lines drawn between them.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
abhayhegde 3y ago
Well, the truth is somewhere in between. A decent market for now perhaps depsite the hesitation in buying the first gen product because of its imperfections.
- MuffinFlavored 3y ago
  On the flip side, there's a decent market for people with disposable income who just always have to buy the latest and greatest gadget because they read about it online/because it's new and fresh.
  - tlb 3y ago
    Yes, though it's not a great market. Usage tends to be low (they sit in a drawer) so there's not much follow-on app store revenue, and developers don't target your platform. "Developers! stomp Developers! stomp Developers!" is actually great wisdom.
paxys 3y ago
I'm gonna guess it's mostly rich techies who buy every product Apple releases. Remember there is a market for their $700 Mac Pro wheels (https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-wheels-kit https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-w...).

whywhywhywhy 3y ago

It's a ton if you were a startup launching your first product from nothing. Not much for Apple, Meta reports 20 million Quest sales (18M of that Quest 2 sales so you can take an educated guess how much the 1 and Pro made up of the remaining 2M). From what's going in the device the margins are probably not great on the main unit, especially when you compare it to the plastic Quest 2.