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Apple sold an estimated 180K Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend
- spicyusername 3y agoIs that a lot or a little?
- meepmorp 3y agoIt's more than they've ever had for a vision pro release.
- detourdog 3y agoa lot for a Mac a little for an iPhone.
- sp332 3y agoSeems like a lot. It would take 150 days just to run Apple's "making of" video that many times.
- andy_ppp 3y ago$3500 * 180000 = $630m or have I done the maths wrong? I would say that is a LOT even for Apple!
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y agoApple makes $390B per year - which is about ~$1.06B per day. So, yeah, $630m for one weekend is a lot. Though, if you look at iPhone sales - Apple sold 13M iPhone 6s in the first week - and in 2 years sold about 200M - meaning about ~6.5% of sales over 2 years. This would mean the Vision Pro might be on pace to sell about ~$6B per year - which is about ~1.5% of Apple revenue. This is less than 1/3rd of AirPods - so, for a company the size of Apple - this doesn't really seem that significant right now. It's obviously hard to predict the future, though...
- dasil003 3y agoiPhone and AirPods are mature mass market items with historically juicy margin and volume. I don't think it's appropriate to compare Vision Pro on this basis because AR/VR just isn't there yet in terms of market adoption. Even as it matures, it may never grow to the size of the smartphone market, but right now the upside is undeniable. Playing in that market competitively will require a large ongoing investment for years, perhaps decades, so I'm more inclined to judge Vision Pro on the qualitative feedback. The preorders just represent short-term hype which is 90% Apple brand and marketing, so I'm not reading too much into them either way.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoApple's device sales seem to have largely plateaued though. Id say any new device growth is pretty significant for them.
- dmoy 3y agoThanks for all the context. I really wish journalists would include this sort of thing regularly. Especially in today's world where there isn't a limitation on physical print size.
- walthamstow 3y agoI'm not remotely sure about your extrapolation there. The 6s came out when everyone already had a smartphone. Likewise AirPods when most people had Bluetooth headphones. Both mass market products. This is a brand new product line. Nobody knows if they want one yet. Mass-market normies have barely heard of it. Now, if you'd compared it to the OG iPhone...
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y agoThis is not a brand new product line. Similar to AirPods - the headset market has been around for a while now. There's ~12M VR headsets being sold per year already. As far back as 2019 - there were ~5M VR headsets being sold per year.
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- ToucanLoucan 3y agoWell the largest seller is Meta, naturally, since theirs are the cheapest and they've supposedly moved 20 million headsets. The second most popular (on Steam anyway which skews in it's favor) is the Valve Index, which has moved 149 thousand units. I mention that because I have a feeling a venn diagram of the purchasers of both the Vision Pro and Index have a lot of overlap. I don't have data for that beyond the numbers being kind of similar, but: - VR is a niche technology - Index and Vision Pro are both quite pricey and unlikely to be someone's first go into the tech, so you're talking true VR enthusiasts. Casual wanna-tryers are going to go for a used Vive or a Meta Quest That being said I wouldn't die on the hill of this analysis, because while the Index is expensive (full kit is about $1k) there's still a steep increase for Vision Pro, which runs $3,600 if memory serves.
- notfried 3y agoThe 20M figure includes Quest 1, 2, and Pro, and spans several years [0]. [0: https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstream/ https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstr...]
- jitl 3y agoI enjoyed my Index and I also pre-ordered the Apple Vision Pro
- solardev 3y agoYou can't really run AAA games on the Vision, can you?
- anthonyskipper 3y agoYou can run AAA games on any apple silicon, and the perf is usually superior to anything else on the market except specialized gaming PCs. The real issue is that there is a small selection compared to xbox/ps/pc.
- ToucanLoucan 3y ago> You can run AAA games on any apple silicon This is a pretty big oversimplification. Anyone familiar with VR tech and VR gaming knows that experiences that aren't made and instead are modified after the fact to be VR compatible =/= VR experiences. In that sense, I would say the only truly AAA VR game I know of is Half Life Alyx. And it is incredible mind you, but this is a very, very, very exclusive club for games to be in. MAYBE you could count Skyrim VR as it's by far the most polished VR port I've played, with only some jank here and there. But then you have stuff like Fallout 4 VR which, and I say this as someone who put an unethical amount of time into Fallout 4, Fallout 4 VR is just... trash. Just pure garbage. Utterly unplayable. And then there's Doom 2016 VR, which like... you took a run and gun and had to remove the run part to make it so people wouldn't vomit violently after 5 minutes. Is it even the same game?
- pchristensen 3y agoIt is estimated that it will be supply constrained all year by the screens for each eye, to about 1 million total units for in 2024. So, selling nearly 20% on the first weekend? Sounds like a lot.
- svnt 3y agoThe article mentions Apple has 1.2 billion active users. They need 0.014% of those to buy one to hit that number. The bigger question, also mentioned in the article, is how many of those preorders are scalpers.
- heliophobicdude 3y agoSome that I follow are pre-ordering multiples but intending to return all but one. Some did it to secure a launch day model or specific fit.
- svnt 3y agoI find the scalpers always have such reasonable sounding rationalizations.
- padjo 3y agoIt’s only available to US users, so your math is probably a bit off.
- svnt 3y agoSo you’re saying more scalpers than I thought? More seriously I found 150 million active iPhones in the USA, which would make it roughly 0.12%, or we can use 40% of revenue to scale our original guess (since presumably the US contains a large proportion of those 1.2 billion who would purchase a $3500 device) and get to 0.035%.
- kergonath 3y agoI would say both. it’s an irrelevant fraction of the market. At the same time, you need some faith to buy into this at the moment. We’ll see in an iteration or two whether it worked out or not. How big that is also depends on their production run, and I don’t think we’ll have any accurate figure for that for quite some time, if ever.
- tlb 3y ago180k developers is a lot. 180k consumers is barely a market. I think it's mostly developers, though. I ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff.
- stcredzero 3y agoI ordered one, to try some immersive data visualization stuff. Considering what Dall-E and the like are capable of, I suspect that AI will be able to lay out data for us. This includes tasks where multiple web and smartphone apps are opened and data is entered. These could be opened grouped in framed windows, with process lines drawn between them.
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- abhayhegde 3y agoWell, the truth is somewhere in between. A decent market for now perhaps depsite the hesitation in buying the first gen product because of its imperfections.
- MuffinFlavored 3y agoOn the flip side, there's a decent market for people with disposable income who just always have to buy the latest and greatest gadget because they read about it online/because it's new and fresh.
- tlb 3y agoYes, though it's not a great market. Usage tends to be low (they sit in a drawer) so there's not much follow-on app store revenue, and developers don't target your platform. "Developers! stomp Developers! stomp Developers!" is actually great wisdom.
- paxys 3y agoI'm gonna guess it's mostly rich techies who buy every product Apple releases. Remember there is a market for their $700 Mac Pro wheels (https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-wheels-kit https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MX572ZM/A/apple-mac-pro-w...).
- whywhywhywhy 3y agoIt's a ton if you were a startup launching your first product from nothing. Not much for Apple, Meta reports 20 million Quest sales (18M of that Quest 2 sales so you can take an educated guess how much the 1 and Pro made up of the remaining 2M). From what's going in the device the margins are probably not great on the main unit, especially when you compare it to the plastic Quest 2.
- napolux 3y agoI'll gladly leave this 180K people (how many of those are scalpers? see https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=apple+vision+pro&_sacat=0 https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=apple+vision+... ) review it and figure out any possible issue/defect/anomaly/whatever for me. I would love to own one, but for what I've seen and read looks like there's a lot to work on: battery (a merely 2 hours, a movie can be easily longer than that), 3rd parties support, etc...
- barkerja 3y agoI wonder if a company like Anker will be able to release anything sooner rather than later to help extend device use on battery.
- napolux 3y agoProbably yes. But if you want me to shell more than 3K dollars you can't give me the battery life of a Meta Quest 3, way cheaper.
- sfcarrot 3y agoFor battery, I think it can be connected directly to power instead of always rely on battery. I may need pure-battery when moving around (hopefully nothing more than 2hr) but have it plugged in when I am stable.
- akmarinov 3y agoI think the plane ride use case is what people target the most, but then again bringing extra powerbanks is feasible
- sebzim4500 3y agoI would imagine that the target demographic flies premium/business and will almost certainly have power sockets for long flights.
- steveBK123 3y agoIt's a pretty exciting new product line but I think I will sit it out til Gen2. It's clearly pushing the limits of ergonomics because of where the tech is (battery life / goggles weight). Using it for virtual displays with a physical keyboard/trackpad for productivity use cases on a Mac looks pretty cool. But if its weight restricts how many hours per day I can use it.. I still need to own a bunch of monitors anyway.. so ..
- jsbisviewtiful 3y ago> It's a pretty exciting new product line but I think I will sit it out til Gen2. For something this expensive, gen 4 is the minimum entry point for me. Even the iPhone and apple watch didn't start getting "great" until gen 4. There are many things to work out with the device and there needs to be a functioning support market to justify the cost... but honestly, until I see a great use case for the headset there's not a lot of interest for me at all. I have a Quest 2 that's been gathering dust for 2.5 years now. There just isn't enough to justify the hassle of using it. > Using it for virtual displays with a physical keyboard/trackpad for productivity use cases on a Mac looks pretty cool. I currently have 3 monitors: my 16" MBP, a 24" samsung and a 27"samsung... even the combined prices for these devices do not equal the cost of the headset and I don't have to deal with the "experience" of a headset. Hell, I only approach the cost of the headset when I add in the prices of my mouse, keyboard and desk.
- amoss 3y agoNo wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame.
- dewey 3y agoThat's exactly how I imagine most comments in these Vision Pro threads on HN are going to age.
- cassianoleal 3y agoThis will sell easily. It's by far the most advanced Vision Pro yet.
- bdavid21wnec 3y agoReally interested if this can become a laptop replacement while at home. Not sure I would carry it to the local coffee shop, but I’m thinking with a Bluetooth keyboard I might be able to replace my aging MacBook Pro while at home. Considering all the tech it has seems like a cheaper alt than buying another MacBook Pro
- paxys 3y agoIt may be a monitor replacement, but isn't intended to compete with your MacBook.
- dwighttk 3y agoThis gen, maybe not, but it will if it survives to future generations
- _ph_ 3y agoIt runs apps on its own. So many things you might want to do on an iPad could run just on the Vision Pro itself. While I can't live without a full computer, a lot of people are happy with an iPad only. Many of those might also be happy just with a Vision Pro.
- paxys 3y agoThe coversation is about a MacBook Pro, not an iPad. Users of the two have very different expectations in terms of CPU, memory, storage, battery life and more.
- text0404 3y agoyou can get 1TB storage with an M2 chip. if you're ok with being plugged in, then this can be a developer machine.
- _ph_ 3y agoDepends on what the original poster uses his MB Pro for and how much computer power is required. That is why I compared it to an iPad. A M2 is quite a powerful processor on its own. Any "power" user won't use the VP for computing, I guess, but it could well hold its own against an aging MB Pro, as long as the kind of software used it supported at all. My M2 Air runs circles around my Intel MB Pro I am using for work. So the VP would certainly be faster, but probably not run the software I need. But then, maybe there will be an Emacs optimized for the VP :)
- paxys 3y agoAm I missing something or are people just taking the word of an unknown Medium blogger with no sources as the official truth?
- AnonC 3y agoYou’ve missed something in this instance because you’re surely not a follower of rumors and news about Apple. Ming-Chi Kuo is not some random blogger but a financial analyst with reliable and deep connections within Apple’s supply chain. He has a great track record of announcing what Apple is up to (hardware wise) and its plans for the future. MacRumors has a dedicated category for news related to or announced by him. [1] AppleInsider also publishes his predictions and analysis. [2] If there are a few people on this entire planet who can be relied on (mostly, since nobody can be right all the time) to publish trustworthy predictions of Apple’s plans and products, it would be Ming-Chi Kuo, Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) and Ross Young (he specializes on the display side of things). [1]: https://www.macrumors.com/guide/ming-chi-kuo/ https://www.macrumors.com/guide/ming-chi-kuo/ [2]: https://appleinsider.com/inside/ming-chi-kuo https://appleinsider.com/inside/ming-chi-kuo
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- totaldude87 3y agono one except apple would know the actual numbers and they wont publish it (post steve jobs era thing) the next best bet is on estimates and this guy has a track record.
- etchalon 3y agoOver half-a-billion in sales for a $3500 dollar v1 product on day one. Literally only Apple could probably pull that off.
- ok123456 3y agoWhy does Apple think they'll have success with a VR product when others have recently tried and failed? Especially when the new product is 10x the cost of the failed product. Price was a barrier to the adoption of the cheaper, existing device.
- hattmall 3y agoRemember Apple is a fashion company and not a tech company. Their marketing plan and expectations are entirely different than other companies. Their pictures demo isn't coders simulating four monitors, it's coaches on the sidelines getting instant replays and notes from the box. It's movie stars popping it on after a scene to review the various takes. Doctors in the OR getting an endo-feed. The idea is to make something that's trendy and useful, charge a premium then push it to mass market from the top down and let all the non-brand conscience people buy the alternatives that emerge. Many of which will be cheaper and better just like with any other apple tech.
- tatrajim 3y agoI have been hoping for more informed commentary concerning the scuttlebutt that Apple and Sony had a falling out over the a purported refusal to ramp up micro-OLED production, leading Apple to source future production in the PRC. Supposedly only around 900k OLED units were supplied by Sony (so, 450k AVP units), constraining potential sales for the near future. The general assumption in the press seems to be that sales are largely demand determined, but I suspect the cutting-edge technology used may still be in short supply, hence the high price validated for the relatively few units available.
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