3 ms·
Only if you want to meaure the number of times you die on average. But you typically want to measure the risk of dying once over a career as a crew, and that is
by cm2187 3y ago
Only if you want to meaure the number of times you die on average. But you typically want to measure the risk of dying once over a career as a crew, and that is very much a function of how many times you roll the dice. Your probability of survival is 1-(prob of no crash per flight)^(flight count), and it is not linear. Whereas a passenger plays the game many less times.
If you don't take my made up numbers but wikipedia [1], and if I get my math right, B737 max has 4 accidents per millions flights, vs 0.2 for previous B737. That means that over a career of 15 years, working 200 days per year, 3 flights a day, a crew has a chance of dying of 3.54% with the Max vs 0.18% for the older models. 0.18% might be non material but 3.54% starts to be significant. (a passenger that takes 10 B737 max flights a year over that period only has a 0.06% probability to die).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX#Accidents_and_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX#Accidents_and_i...