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This whole hubbub is hilarious to me. People are so bad at statistics. You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. 30,000+ people die every

by dangus 3y ago

This whole hubbub is hilarious to me. People are so bad at statistics. You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. 30,000+ people die every year in car crashes in the US but that’s totally fine. (Of course I am well aware of various car company safety scandals where profit was placed above safety). With US airline travel you have to go back multiple years before you find a single flight-related death on a mainstream commercial jet. Meanwhile everyone I know seems to refuse public transit to the airport because of the “crackheads” and “homeless people” even though their car is way more dangerous than those supposed threats. I have to beg people I travel with to stop assuming that a taxi is going to be a better experience than a train or even a bus. The fact that most Americans are against abolishing the 2nd amendment is also another piece of statistical ignorance. It’s such a no-brainer win on public safety but everyone is drunk on their revolutionary war propaganda from when guns didn’t even have the modern concept of bullets. You’re wildly more statistically likely to be shot by a police officer in the US than to be shot by an actual criminal in the UK because that’s how dumb enshrining the rights of killing appliances into a constitution is. I’m all for the customer’s power to boycott, but the actual solution that will save lives is for the government and the FAA to tighten regulations and be more thorough. For a plane type filter I’d personally use it more for comfort or perhaps CO2 emissions preferences and not safety.

swader999 3y ago
Safety stats are lagging indicators.
mattmaroon 3y ago
For a piece criticizing people for being dumb you get a lot mixed up. Car companies don’t certify their own safety, they have to send them in to the government to be crash tested. Car deaths don’t happen (much) because of mechanical failures, they happen because of crashes. They don’t self-certify their crashworthiness. Most people don’t live somewhere where there’s a subway to the airport in the USA. You can count on one hand (and probably have multiple fingers left over) the number of cities where you have that option. For most people a bus adds significant time to their trip. I can take a 30 minute Uber whenever I want or a God-only-knows-how-long bus ride. Even if it weren’t for the mentally ill (but mostly harmless) passengers, a taxi is in every way a better experience than a bus, and still negligible risk, it just costs more. Even if we could abolish the second amendment that still leaves over 300 million guns here, and this may surprise you but people also sell things illegally. The problem isn’t the law, it’s that people want guns.
- dangus 3y ago
  There wouldn’t be 300 million guns in citizens’ hands without the law existing in the first place. That’s why the law is dumb. Laws can be changed. There’s no obligation to double down on them. We don’t keep lead pipes legal just because it’s very costly and time-intensive to replace all of them. That’s only an argument to start sooner rather than later. Guns would be a cakewalk to take off the streets compared to lead pipes. For one thing, guns need a consumable to function at all (ammunition). Yes, car makers self-certify. You are not correct about that. Government crash tests aren’t a prerequisite to being allowed to sell a vehicle. Example source: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/some-cars-will-never-be-crash-tested-crash-test-ratings/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/some-cars-will-ne... You can also ask ChatGPT if you want. And then here we go with the carbrain argument “the only option is cars, America is set up for cars.” That was and continues to be an intentional choice. It is not irreversible. It is not something that we are forced to double down on just because that’s been our choice so far. Every time a road is built or a highway is widened that’s an intentional choice that is no less intentional or costly than sending the money toward transit options or pedestrian/cycling infrastructure. The Netherlands had this exact same problem in the 70s and reversed it. Something like 90% of daily trips are under 5 miles, which is less than 30 minutes on a bike. The Netherlands has zero cities that are as populous as the top 10 most populous American cities. “The bus adds significant time” but that’s the thing that people say who never take the bus. Can you work on your laptop while you drive? Can you read while you drive? I can do that on the bus. Sounds like I get time back, and my ride is statistically 10x safer. Also, when it comes to large urban areas, you have to remember that most people live in them. That’s why they’re large urban areas. A New Yorker who never drives anywhere isn't someone who “doesn’t count” because they live in New York and it’s an anomaly. More of America depends on public transit than you think.
  - mattmaroon 3y ago
    When the second amendment was written, guns were primitive and not much of a problem. Law and order was less institutionalized. People were afraid of being occupied by a foreign government because they recently had been. I agree that if they knew what we know now, they probably would have worded it better. But repealing the second amendment now won’t make things better. We made drugs illegal, how’s that going? The article you posted said that 97% of the cars on the road are crash tested by the government. I think my statement on that is substantially accurate. In America, most large urban areas do not have extensive trains. I’ve lived all over this country, the only places I can think of where most of an urban area can take any sort of train from most of the city to the airport are NY, Boston, Chicago. There may be some I’m missing, and even in those cities, they don’t cover the entire area. Probably at least 75% of the country can’t walk from their home to a train and take it to the airport. America’s infrastructure is entirely beyond my ability to control. I can take a one hour bus ride and read I am sure but I’ve got stuff to do with my day, so I’ll take the 30 minute Uber with no nutjobs yelling at thin air. I think you’re also getting confused between population and population density. The US has a population density of 1/12th the Netherlands. You can bike just fine around our densely populated areas, though our poor bike lane design makes it far more dangerous than driving. The Netherlands has a small population but they live much closer together which is what matters for public transport cost. It would cost an order of magnitude more here to provide the same level of service, so we don’t. Maybe we should but when I need to get to the airport that’s not really on my mind.
jjav 3y ago
> You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. No, they don't. Car companies (in the US) must send cars to NHTSA for crash testing. > I’m all for the customer’s power to boycott, but the actual solution that will save lives is for the government and the FAA to tighten regulations and be more thorough. This is true. And how would you get the FAA to care enough to do that? Boycotts are one way, make them see people care.
light_hue_1 3y ago
> People are so bad at statistics. Yes! Your comment confirms that! > You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. False. They do not. > 30,000+ people die every year in car crashes in the US but that’s totally fine That's not how the probabilities work out. Most of those people are drunk/high, speeding, drowsy, or very old. Then, the car that you drive, how defensive you are, and how much you drive comes into play. My personal chances are astronomically low compared to someone who drives. > You’re wildly more statistically likely to be shot by a police officer in the US than to be shot by an actual criminal in the UK because that’s how dumb enshrining the rights of killing appliances into a constitution is. This has nothing to do with the 2nd amendment. It has to do with the militarization of the police, the war on drugs, the long history of violence and racism by police, which are totally different issues. > I’m all for the customer’s power to boycott, but the actual solution that will save lives is for the government and the FAA to tighten regulations and be more thorough. So your solution is to do the thing that has failed over and over and over again? The thing that Congress refuses to do? (fund the FAA). I have no words.

by dangus 3y ago

swader999 3y ago

Safety stats are lagging indicators.

mattmaroon 3y ago

For a piece criticizing people for being dumb you get a lot mixed up. Car companies don’t certify their own safety, they have to send them in to the government to be crash tested. Car deaths don’t happen (much) because of mechanical failures, they happen because of crashes. They don’t self-certify their crashworthiness. Most people don’t live somewhere where there’s a subway to the airport in the USA. You can count on one hand (and probably have multiple fingers left over) the number of cities where you have that option. For most people a bus adds significant time to their trip. I can take a 30 minute Uber whenever I want or a God-only-knows-how-long bus ride. Even if it weren’t for the mentally ill (but mostly harmless) passengers, a taxi is in every way a better experience than a bus, and still negligible risk, it just costs more. Even if we could abolish the second amendment that still leaves over 300 million guns here, and this may surprise you but people also sell things illegally. The problem isn’t the law, it’s that people want guns.

dangus 3y ago
There wouldn’t be 300 million guns in citizens’ hands without the law existing in the first place. That’s why the law is dumb. Laws can be changed. There’s no obligation to double down on them. We don’t keep lead pipes legal just because it’s very costly and time-intensive to replace all of them. That’s only an argument to start sooner rather than later. Guns would be a cakewalk to take off the streets compared to lead pipes. For one thing, guns need a consumable to function at all (ammunition). Yes, car makers self-certify. You are not correct about that. Government crash tests aren’t a prerequisite to being allowed to sell a vehicle. Example source: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/some-cars-will-never-be-crash-tested-crash-test-ratings/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/some-cars-will-ne... You can also ask ChatGPT if you want. And then here we go with the carbrain argument “the only option is cars, America is set up for cars.” That was and continues to be an intentional choice. It is not irreversible. It is not something that we are forced to double down on just because that’s been our choice so far. Every time a road is built or a highway is widened that’s an intentional choice that is no less intentional or costly than sending the money toward transit options or pedestrian/cycling infrastructure. The Netherlands had this exact same problem in the 70s and reversed it. Something like 90% of daily trips are under 5 miles, which is less than 30 minutes on a bike. The Netherlands has zero cities that are as populous as the top 10 most populous American cities. “The bus adds significant time” but that’s the thing that people say who never take the bus. Can you work on your laptop while you drive? Can you read while you drive? I can do that on the bus. Sounds like I get time back, and my ride is statistically 10x safer. Also, when it comes to large urban areas, you have to remember that most people live in them. That’s why they’re large urban areas. A New Yorker who never drives anywhere isn't someone who “doesn’t count” because they live in New York and it’s an anomaly. More of America depends on public transit than you think.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  When the second amendment was written, guns were primitive and not much of a problem. Law and order was less institutionalized. People were afraid of being occupied by a foreign government because they recently had been. I agree that if they knew what we know now, they probably would have worded it better. But repealing the second amendment now won’t make things better. We made drugs illegal, how’s that going? The article you posted said that 97% of the cars on the road are crash tested by the government. I think my statement on that is substantially accurate. In America, most large urban areas do not have extensive trains. I’ve lived all over this country, the only places I can think of where most of an urban area can take any sort of train from most of the city to the airport are NY, Boston, Chicago. There may be some I’m missing, and even in those cities, they don’t cover the entire area. Probably at least 75% of the country can’t walk from their home to a train and take it to the airport. America’s infrastructure is entirely beyond my ability to control. I can take a one hour bus ride and read I am sure but I’ve got stuff to do with my day, so I’ll take the 30 minute Uber with no nutjobs yelling at thin air. I think you’re also getting confused between population and population density. The US has a population density of 1/12th the Netherlands. You can bike just fine around our densely populated areas, though our poor bike lane design makes it far more dangerous than driving. The Netherlands has a small population but they live much closer together which is what matters for public transport cost. It would cost an order of magnitude more here to provide the same level of service, so we don’t. Maybe we should but when I need to get to the airport that’s not really on my mind.

jjav 3y ago

> You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. No, they don't. Car companies (in the US) must send cars to NHTSA for crash testing. > I’m all for the customer’s power to boycott, but the actual solution that will save lives is for the government and the FAA to tighten regulations and be more thorough. This is true. And how would you get the FAA to care enough to do that? Boycotts are one way, make them see people care.

light_hue_1 3y ago

> People are so bad at statistics. Yes! Your comment confirms that! > You know who else self-certifies their safety? Car companies. False. They do not. > 30,000+ people die every year in car crashes in the US but that’s totally fine That's not how the probabilities work out. Most of those people are drunk/high, speeding, drowsy, or very old. Then, the car that you drive, how defensive you are, and how much you drive comes into play. My personal chances are astronomically low compared to someone who drives. > You’re wildly more statistically likely to be shot by a police officer in the US than to be shot by an actual criminal in the UK because that’s how dumb enshrining the rights of killing appliances into a constitution is. This has nothing to do with the 2nd amendment. It has to do with the militarization of the police, the war on drugs, the long history of violence and racism by police, which are totally different issues. > I’m all for the customer’s power to boycott, but the actual solution that will save lives is for the government and the FAA to tighten regulations and be more thorough. So your solution is to do the thing that has failed over and over and over again? The thing that Congress refuses to do? (fund the FAA). I have no words.