I agree that people are bad with probability like you explain However, I think the issue with the 737 MAX is that it's been involved in several high profile ca

I agree that people are bad with probability like you explain However, I think the issue with the 737 MAX is that it's been involved in several high profile catastrophic mistakes while only being in service for a few years. It's expected that a page in service for 20 years might have wear and tear that leads to issues... But brand new planes crashing back to back shortly after being released.. The stats on the Wikipedia page state that the MAX has 4 fatalities per 1 million flights, while the prior generation has 0.2 fatalities per million flights [1]. Of course, some if this is due to the two crashes right out the door, and if excluded, perhaps they are similar... But then this new door blowout issue occured... And after investigation multiple planes had the same issue (so it likely is a production issue, not an individual worker screwing up one time). Overall I agree plane model should mean little to travelers... But the MAX is trying very hard to prove it's a lemon. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX