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Your chart shows that during the time where there's no recession, unemployment generally gradually declines, and then when a recession hits unemployment spikes
by jacobolus 3y ago
Your chart shows that during the time where there's no recession, unemployment generally gradually declines, and then when a recession hits unemployment spikes very quickly, irrespective of what level it was at prior to the recession (this seems fairly obvious: the definition of recession is "significant decline in economic activity", which predictably correlates closely with reduced employment). Why do you think this should mean there will be an "imminent" recession? Just because unemployment is currently low?
- enraged_camel 3y agoEmployment is a lagging indicator. In the past, every time unemployment hit rock bottom, a recession followed.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoThat’s tautological though. Rock bottom will always be right before it goes up because that’s what rock bottom means. That doesn’t mean we know when it will go up.