I think the point of comparison of high school graduation rates, the lowest income quintile, really undersells the kind of traumas many children in foster care

I think the point of comparison of high school graduation rates, the lowest income quintile, really undersells the kind of traumas many children in foster care have faced and the exceptional needs they may have. I think these statistics are best explained by Simpson's paradox. Some confounders not studied that are likely very highly correlated with dropping out: things like being a victim of sex trafficking, serious physical abuse, drug addiction, gang membership, the list goes on. I suspect if these types of factors were adequately controlled for, that graduation and incarceration rate gaps would narrow significantly. Goes without saying but I agree with the author on the genetic mumbo jumbo, except to say that some serious mental illnesses that have genetic predisposition could also explain some of the issue.