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This reflects the current evolution of the historical arms race. The missiles are not particularly effective, terminal guidance and warhead design is poor, but
by jandrewrogers 3y ago
This reflects the current evolution of the historical arms race. The missiles are not particularly effective, terminal guidance and warhead design is poor, but they are a threat to any non-military vessel in the region. The underlying dynamic is that technology that was very expensive to produce 50 years ago is now available ubiquitously. It isn’t per se great tech, but it is comparable to tech proper military powers had 50 years ago, which are still quite capable against unsophisticated adversaries, like shipping vessels. Modern military vessels are designed under the assumption that they will be hit by swarms of these missiles.
This has parallels to the issue of there being 400M firearms in the US and an almost infinite capacity to produce new ones in a very decentralized fashion. Almost all of the leverage is on the incentive side; people should be maximally reluctant to inappropriately use what we cannot limit them acquiring. No one can stop people from acquiring or building anti-ship missiles as a practical matter. Building the missiles is too cheap and too easy. The costs to using them inappropriately have to be much higher than they currently are.
- ekianjo 3y ago> Building the missiles is too cheap and too easy That's mostly true because of Iranian support according to the article, not because the Houthis were able to develop them themselves...
- jandrewrogers 3y agoI never meant to imply that the Houthis could build it themselves, just that the technical capabilities are sufficiently distributed that most interested parties can find someone who will provide them given enough incentive. The Houthis don’t need to figure it out themselves if the Iranian government is happy to provide the hardware.