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For very expensive projects like mars landers, it's imperative that everything is very reliable. If the mission plan is 5 flights, that means the systems need t
by skykooler 3y ago
For very expensive projects like mars landers, it's imperative that everything is very reliable. If the mission plan is 5 flights, that means the systems need to be reliable enough that there's a 99.9% chance that it will successfully complete those five flights. But that also means that there's, say, a 98% chance that it can successfully complete 20 flights and maybe a 80% chance that it could complete over 50 flights. So these extended missions are really a consequence of building things to complete the primary mission as effectively as possible.
- mturmon 3y agoAs I tried to clarify above, the helicopter was a tech demo ($90M) and not subject to the same risk rules as “very expensive projects like mars landers” (Perseverance: $2.4B). Your first sentence is trying to equate them. Heli was on board the lander but it was not subject to the same risk constraints. I think your probabilistic risk assessment has something going for it, but not all risk would scale that way. I’m surprised at the self assurance of some of these comments!